At a summer party hosted by Foreign Secretary David Lammy in the sweeping gardens of Lancaster House in London’s grand St James’s district, there was a palpable sense of relief.
Diplomats from British embassies around the world sipped gin cocktails last month, swapped gossip and congratulated themselves that any government missteps had come from domestic policy blunders, not international relations.
So far, apparently so good on the international stage. But, even so, Sir Keir Starmer and his officials overseeing foreign affairs have a bumpy autumn ahead, with a swathe of foreign policy decisions on the Prime Minister’s desk and a series of high-profile international visits.
Top of the in-tray is the Israel-Hamas conflict. Starmer announced last week the UK will join an international coalition of countries in recognising Palestinian statehood if Israel fails to meet certain conditions, including a ceasefire, by next month.
But with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu due to reconvene his war cabinet on Thursday to finalise plans to seize the rest of Gaza, those conditions now look vanishingly unlikely, even if British officials are currently pleased by the fact the delay to the meeting could signal a softening of his position.
If Netanyahu fails to make sufficient progress, the UK, France and Canada are now more likely to seize an opportunity ahead of a meeting of the United Nations General Assembly in New York City to make a declaration on Palestinian statehood.
However, the announcement could come earlier in September, making attendance non-essential for Starmer. Instead, the UK could be represented by Lammy or even Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner.
Starmer is still making up his mind whether to fly to New York. Sandwiched in the calendar between a planned state visit from Donald Trump and the Labour Party conference, the meeting may fall by the wayside. Once regularly attended by prime ministers, Rishi Sunak also did not attend when he was premier, preferring to focus on domestic matters instead.
But it does also mean Trump’s second state visit to the UK hosted by the King and Queen at Windsor could be overshadowed by discussions over the Middle East. Trump arrives on 17 September, the week before the UN meeting. He’ll spend the first day and a half in gilded Royal pomp and ceremony, followed by a one-on-one meeting with the Prime Minister.
Even while still Israel’s key ally, Trump is increasingly frustrated with Netanyahu’s scorched earth policy in Gaza. If France and the UK press ahead with recognition of Palestine it will mean that come September four out of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council – the UK, France, Russia and China – will speak with a single voice. That tees up a possible confrontation when Trump arrives at the UN, as he is currently expected to do. Until then his shifting attitude to Netanyahu is being keenly watched in capitals around the world.
When Trump and Starmer sit down in Windsor, all the signs are they will still be thrashing out some thorny policy issues, even if the two men have a genuine rapport. The UK has ongoing negotiations over its AI regulatory position with the US tech firms and Starmer is considering whether to impose a digital services tax on American big tech companies. The UK is also still seeking a resolution on steel tariffs with the US. Early British optimism a deal could be quickly struck has been replaced by a resignation that it will take some time.
“As UK foreign policy is now inherently reactive and without a guiding principle – it turns out Starmer is quite good at it,” Anand Menon, director of the UK in a Changing Europe think-tank told The i Paper. “Three big issues dominating British foreign policy are reconciling your relationship with the US, the European Union and China where there are all sorts of potential moments for one set of priorities cutting across the other. To date he has juggled them quite well; whether he will continue to do so is another question.”
The tightrope Starmer has walked on whether to adopt a pro-Brussels or pro-Washington position could wobble too. While Starmer has argued it’s not an either/or choice, if the US-EU trade dispute turns into a nasty war, Starmer could be asked to pick a side. The discussions about AI with the US could easily affect the UK rebuilding bridges with the EU because so much defence co-operation is now reliant on AI as well.
After dusting off some domestic engagements – the Budget is not expected to be an easy sell – Starmer will be jetting off again. He’s set to attend a summit of the G20 in Johannesburg in late November, the first G20 summit on the African continent. But whether Trump will attend is by no means certain and the meeting could end up a washout.
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South Africa is struggling to keep the G20 united amid the US trade war, a general lack of support for international co-operation, and its own strained relationship with Trump’s team. Diplomatic ties between the US and South Africa are at a low after a series of snubs by US officials who are keen to reject international institutions in favour of an “America first” approach. Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State, said in February that attending a G20 foreign ministers’ meeting would “waste taxpayer money” and be “anti-American”.
Back in London officials are also pencilling in a potential visit to India for Starmer to see Prime Minister Narendra Modi before the end of the year. While Modi visited the UK briefly last month to sign the most valuable trade deal the UK has struck since leaving the EU, the visit would recognise India as a key strategic partner. The deal, which could increase the UK’s gross domestic product by £4.8bn by 2040, is seen by officials as a blueprint for boosting Britain’s trade links overseas.
Awaited most eagerly for a potential new boost to the economy is Starmer’s trip to Beijing. With no date confirmed on either side, the premier is now not expected to visit President Xi Jinping until early 2026. Trump has pursued aggressive decoupling plans against Beijing and is likely to call on his “friend” Starmer to follow suit.
The PM will have to balance co-operation with China on key economic issues while maintaining security ties with the US. That’s against a hostile backdrop to pursuing closer ties with the Chinese Communist Party, which stands accused of economic and military aggression, human rights abuses and espionage.
After a whirlwind autumn of diplomacy Starmer’s trip to China will be putting his statesmanship skills to the ultimate test.
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