Can the British & Irish Lions go unbeaten in a Test series for the first time in over 50 years? We look ahead to the final game of their tour with our Wallabies vs Lions third Test prediction and preview.
The Lions may have wrapped up the series in dramatic, and somewhat controversial, fashion at the MCG last weekend, but history is still on the line in Sydney in the third Test.
The Lions had not led at any point in the match before Hugo Keenan’s try at the death. In fact, late in the first half the Lions had trailed by 18 points; never before had they come back to win when trailing by more than 10 points in a Test.
Now they will have the opportunity to record a clean sweep against Australia. Not since the iconic 1974 team, featuring Lions legends such as Gareth Edwards, Willie John McBride and Ian McGeechan, has the touring side managed to go unbeaten in a Test series (W3, D1 vs South Africa).
Similar to the ’74 Lions, this year’s crop go into the final game having won every match since landing in the host country, with their defeat to Argentina in Dublin – with a reduced panel of players it should be said – the only blemish in the results column for Andy Farrell’s men.
In fact, the Lions run of eight straight victories since arriving Down Under is their best on a single tour since winning 10 on the bounce in New Zealand in 1977, a series they ultimately lost by the narrowest of margins (2-1, losing by a point in the final Test).
While two of the Lions’ last three series wins, including their only one in the 21st century, have come in Australia, they’ve not managed to whitewash any nation in a Test series since doing so against the Wallabies in 1966. Back then, they played just two matches and suffered a 4-0 series defeat against New Zealand on the same tour, so a win in Sydney on Saturday would likely trump that achievement.
The Lions will have fond memories of playing in Sydney, winning nine of their 13 Tests there, including their most recent – the third Test in 2013 – by 25 points. That remains their second biggest victory against the Wallabies after a 31-0 hammering in 1966.
Meanwhile, Australia have struggled in the same city, losing 10 of their 12 Tests in Sydney since the beginning of 2016 (W2). Their two victories in that spell did come just last year, both against European opposition, but whether that hints at a change in fortunes in the Harbour City is open to debate, given those wins came against Georgia and a struggling Wales side.
Will Joe Schmidt’s side restore some pride in the gold jersey, or will the Lions write their name in the history books?
Where the Game Will Be Won
Australia were much improved in the second Test and they will need to maintain those levels to take down the Lions this weekend. The lineout provided them with a more stable platform than in the first Test: they retained possession from each of their 19 throws – the most they’ve attempted while maintaining a 100% success rate in a Test match since Opta have recorded this data.
In open play, they were a lot more physical and their carry dominance saw a vast improvement. moving from 18% in the first Test to 28% in the second. This allowed their dangerous backs more space and opportunities to cause the Lions problems.
In turn, they saw a vast improvement in their tallies of defenders beaten, line breaks and metres gained compared to the first Test.
In total, the Wallabies beat 40 defenders – their most in a match since the 2019 Rugby World Cup (40 vs Uruguay) – while it was the first time on record that the Lions had missed 30 or more tackles in any fixture.
The Lions will have been disappointed at how they defended the Australian ball carriers, but Schmidt’s side will need to dramatically improve their defence too. They undid much of their strong attacking play with loose defence, especially as the game wore on.
The Wallabies completed 90% of their tackles in the first half, but that rate dropped to 80% in the second as the level of physicality took its toll. Meanwhile, the Lions’ dominant carry rate went from 29% to 45% as they battered away at the Australian try line, eventually winning the match and the series.
Players to Watch
A big part of the Wallabies’ resurgence last week was the return of Rob Valetini and Will Skelton, two figures they sorely missed in Brisbane one week earlier. The pair’s dominance in contact helped set the tone for Australia as they made 352 post-contact metres, compared to the 273 they made in the first Test.
Unfortunately, Valetini has been forced to sit out the series finale due to an injury concern, but Schmidt has introduced another carrying machine to the starting pack in the form of Taniela Tupou.
Tupou’s last Test appearance came against Andy Farrell’s Ireland last November, when he gained 41 metres from four carries. That tally remains the most of any tighthead prop against a Tier 1 nation since the ‘Tongan Thor’ himself gained 41 against Argentina in September 2021. The last tighthead to make more was Lions starter Tadhg Furlong, who gained 43 against Australia in June 2018.
In the Lions pack, Jack Conan will do his utmost to prevent Skelton, Tupou and co. making those hard yards. The Ireland No. 8 was a constant thorn in the Wallabies’ side last weekend, completing a mammoth 24 tackles, the most of any British & Irish Lions player in a Test game on record (since 2005).
The only change in the Lions backline sees Blair Kinghorn replace James Lowe on the left wing following a 19-minute cameo last week. Any Australia defenders looking for a reprieve are likely to be disappointed, as Kinghorn’s carry numbers over the last 18 months have been nothing short of sensational.
His average of 14.1 carries per 80 minutes is at least two and a half more than any other Tier 1 back to have played 800+ minutes in that time, while his average of 93 metres gained per 80 minutes is also the highest of any player.
Australia full-back Tom Wright sits in third spot in that ranking, averaging 70 metres gained per 80 minutes, with All Blacks superstar Will Jordan the only player separating him and Kinghorn. In addition to his try, Wright gained 103 metres from eight carries against the Lions last weekend, the most of any player in a Lions Test over the last decade.
In fact, it was the fifth time he’s made 100+ metres in a single game for the Wallabies and the third time in the last 12 months alone.
Only two others have done so as often since last August – the aforementioned duo of Jordan (3 times) and Kinghorn, who’s done so on four occasions.
Wallabies vs Lions Third Test Prediction
As with the first two Tests, the Opta supercomputer has the Lions as heavy favourites and gives them a 74.8% chance of completing the clean sweep Down Under, with the Wallabies given a win prediction of just 24.6%.
The Opta supercomputer suggests the scoreline will be more similar to the first Test than last week’s encounter at the MCG, with the Lions fancied to win by 14 points, more specifically by a scoreline of 30-16.
Wallabies vs Lions Third Test Lineups
Australia Starting XV: 15 Tom Wright, 14 Max Jorgensen, 13 Joseph Suaalii, 12 Len Ikitau, 11 Dylan Pietsch, 10 Tom Lynagh, 9 Nic White; 1 James Slipper, 2 David Porecki, 3 Taniela Tupou, 4 Nick Frost, 5 Will Skelton, 6 Tom Hooper, 7 Fraser McReight, 8 Harry Wilson (c).
Replacements: 16 Billy Pollard, 17 Angus Bell, 18 Zane Nonggorr, 19 Jeremy Williams, 20 Langi Gleeson 21 Tate McDermott, 22 Ben Donaldson, 23 Andrew Kellaway.
Lions Starting XV: 15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Tommy Freeman, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 Blair Kinghorn, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park; 1 Andrew Porter, 2 Dan Sheehan, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 4 Maro Itoje (c), 5 James Ryan, 6 Tadhg Beirne, 7 Tom Curry, 8 Jack Conan.
Replacements: 16 Ronan Kelleher, 17 Ellis Genge, 18 Will Stuart, 19 Ollie Chessum, 20 Jac Morgan, 21 Ben Earl, 22 Alex Mitchell, 22 Owen Farrell.
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Wallabies vs Lions Third Test Prediction and Preview Opta Analyst.
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