Ahead of the July meeting, Barclays saw two rate cuts for the ECB left for this year - one in September and one in December. Their terminal rate forecast was 1.50%, driven by "average US tariffs on EU imports of circa 15% and risks of medium-term inflation undershooting".
While the tariffs imposed by Trump seems to be matching their assumption, Barclays is still removing their call for a September rate cut. I reckon they look to be swayed by Lagarde's press conference and the ECB sources leak after it would seem.
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