The Swiss franc may trade sideways in the near term as markets await clarity on trade relations between the U.S. and Switzerland, according to a note from Commerzbank.
Unlike other nations, Switzerland has not yet received a formal tariff warning from President Trump ahead of his planned August 1 tariff rollout. This has provided temporary relief, especially given Trump’s earlier threat in April to impose a 31% tariff on Swiss goods.
Commerzbank notes that while the franc has strengthened in recent weeks, reflecting market optimism, the risk of a 15% tariff remains—the rate Trump has suggested for countries not yet specifically targeted.
Even in the absence of a direct announcement, the bank warns that any eventual tariffs will likely weigh on Switzerland’s real economy, despite the current calm in currency markets.
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