Donald Trump will command centre stage of both US and UK politics when he arrives in Scotland for a four-day visit from Friday.
The American President is crossing the Atlantic to open a new golf course in Aberdeenshire. He will also meet Sir Keir Starmer, with whom he has enjoyed a strong rapport so far.
Despite Trump’s warm words for his mother’s homeland, protests are expected in Scotland. A sign saying “twinned with Epstein Island” was put up outside the Trump International site in Aberdeenshire.
Trump’s visit comes as the White House pushes back against reports the President is named in Justice Department documents relating to paedophile financier Jeffrey Epstein.
An immense security operation has been launched to keep activists getting anywhere near Trump. Scotland’s police union has grabbed the headlines, threatening legal action over officers being asked to work 12-hour shifts.
Trump will create plenty of his own headlines once the Marine One helicopter touches down north of the border. The i Paper takes a closer look at the US President’s main aims for the visit.
Trump has said he wants to “refine the trade deal” reached with the UK back in May when he speaks to Starmer. The PM will want to pin the President down to a firm agreement on steel tariffs, with nothing formalised in the May agreement.
UK steel exports to the US are currently taxed at 25 per cent – lower than the 50 per cent faced by other countries. But No 10 is hoping Trump will keep a White House promise to remove tariffs altogether.
Will Trump want something in return? Could he push Starmer again on British tech taxes on behalf of US firms in Silicon Valley? The White House has said it was “disappointed” that Downing Street did not give way on the UK’s 2 per cent digital services tax in the May trade deal.
Trump recently said the UK was “very well protected” from tariffs. “You know why? Because I like them,” he added. The President has also said he “really likes” Starmer “even though he’s a liberal”.
Cement US-UK ties on foreign policy
No 10 has played down the significance of the Trump-Starmer talks in Scotland, making clear it will not be a “formal bilateral”. But with such huge events going on in the world, it is hard to image the pair will not touch on foreign policy.
The UK is one of 25 countries to have signed a joint statement condemning Israel for “the drip-feeding of aid and the inhumane killing of civilians” in Gaza. The US did not sign the statement. Trump’s Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee called it “disgusting”.
Dr Martin Farr, a leading expert in US-UK diplomacy, thinks Trump will want to reassure himself that he and Starmer are still largely aligned on both the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts.
“Trump’s position has changed dramatically on Ukraine, he’s come round to a much more pro-European way of thinking,” said Dr |Farr, senior lecturer in contemporary British history at Newcastle University.
“Trump is realising the advantages that come from having a close ally [in Starmer]. Some presidents come to power not enamoured with the idea of the special relationship, but they come round to it.”
The US President would certainly appreciate any kind words from Starmer on the new, second golf course he is opening in Aberdeenshire.
But Trump appears more concerned with boosting the profile of his Turnberry course in Ayrshire. The golf-obsessed Republican is keen to bring The Open Championship back to the site, which last lasted hosted the event in 2009.
Senior Whitehall officials have reportedly asked the Royal and Ancient chiefs who run The Open about any barriers to Turnberry acting as host in 2028.
Could Trump be audacious enough to ask for Starmer’s help?
“It’s not impossible he’ll bring it up [with Starmer],” said Dr Fraser McMillan, politics expert at the University of Edinburgh – who does not think the PM would be foolish to get involved. “Starmer is good at deflecting those things.”
“I could certainly see him [Trump] bringing it up at a press conference,” added Dr McMillan. “He combines business and the duties of office in a way you can’t imagine with any other president.”
Cause trouble on net zero, oil and renewables
Trump has repeatedly called from more oil drilling in the North Sea oil and attacked moves toward net zero and enewable energy.
square JEFFREY EPSTEIN AnalysisThe full picture of Trump's Epstein relationship is emerging. He can't escape undamaged
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“They have so much oil there,” he recently told the BBC ahead of his Scotland trip. “They should get rid of the windmills and bring back the oil.”
The US President is also expected to meet Scottish First Minister John Swinney in the days ahead. Could he try to push his pro-oil agenda?
Stephen Boyd, director of IPPR Scotland, previously told The i Paper that Trump could “try to influence the Scottish Government” on oil and gas drilling to boost the prospects of US energy giants.
However, Dr McMillan said he thought Trump did not particularly care about Scotland’s energy policy, arguing that “drill baby drill” rhetoric is aimed at keeping his own supporters happy.
“I’m sure there are US oil executives that like it when he says those things on oil and renewables. He’s focused on his own base too with those kind of comments – it’s become a culture war thing,” said the Edinburgh University expert.
Nobody thinks the SNP Government will be swayed from policies aimed at achieving net-zero emissions by 2045, slightly more ambitious than the UK Government’s 2050 target. “Swinney will just want to be statesmanlike, polite, and get through a meeting without any hiccups,” said Dr McMillan. “It’s about avoiding any massive embarrassment.”
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