Fundamental Overview
Gold has been on a steady rise last week since bouncing on a major trendline as the market kept on increasing the dovish bets on the Fed. That rally reversed after the US NFP came out better than expected and triggered a more hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations.
In the bigger picture, gold remains in an uptrend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid Fed easing and just a hawkish repricing in rate cuts expectations could trigger corrections in the short term.
Gold Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that gold is now pulling back into the major upward trendline as the positive US NFP reduced the chances of a third rate cut by year-end. The buyers will likely step in around the trendline with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to pile in for a drop into the 3120 level next.
Gold Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly that the NFP marked the top in the recent rally and traders now await new catalysts or better levels to position themselves. There’s not much else we can glean from this timeframe as the buyers will likely step in around the major upward trendline, while the sellers will look for a break lower.
Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor downward trendline defining the current pullback. The sellers will likely continue to lean on that trendline to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to pile in for a rally into the 3438 level next. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
The only notable events this week are Trump’s letters on tariffs and trade deals, and the US Jobless Claims figures on Thursday.
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This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com. Read More Details
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