Harris and Newsom diverge as polling shows Democrats’ race is wide open ...Middle East

In a little over one year, the 2026 midterms will be in the rearview, and all attention will turn sharply to the 2028 election.

While the question of who will be atop either party’s ticket remains to be seen, new polling suggests that the race for the Democratic nomination is wide open.

Indeed, last week, Emerson College released a poll of Democratic Primary voters that was revealing for what it said about a party that remains searching for a standard bearer.

Leading the 13-candidate race is former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (16%), followed by former Vice President Kamala Harris (13%), and then California Gov. Gavin Newsom (12%).

Now, these numbers should be viewed through the context of how difficult it can be for voters to decide who they will support when primaries begin in two and a half years.

However, polls are an effective way to take a snapshot of the electorate’s mood at a given time, and the data from Emerson has three overarching takeaways.

First, the race to for the 2028 Democratic nomination is wide open. 

Despite their deep bench of household names, no Democrat has managed to separate themselves from the pack. 

Buttigieg’s 3-point lead is well within the survey’s 5-point margin of error, and a plurality (23%) of respondents said they were undecided. 

It is also worth noting that Buttigieg received zero votes from Black voters – the backbone of the Democratic Party – in the Emerson poll.

The second takeaway is that, with Rep. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (7%) tied for 4th place, the poll indicates a desire for fresh faces – which Harris is not. 

It also reflects the rising influence of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, joining the surprise victory of Zohran Mamdani in New York’s Democratic primary and Sen. Bernie Sanders’ relatively successful presidential campaigns. 

The growing power of this wing opens up avenues for a number of younger Democrats which further muddy the waters and make it hard for any one candidate to cement themselves as the party’s standard bearer before 2028.

Finally, the third main takeaway is what this poll says about Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, and their diverging political fortunes. 

Given Harris’ name recognition, experience, and how close she came to winning in 2024, one may have expected her to be leading early polling, which usually reflect name recognition more than anything else.

Similarly, Newsom’s recent moves to the center on key issues and his hosting of right-wing influencers on his podcast had been considered harmful to his position in a primary. 

And yet, Newsom is virtually tied with Harris in the Emerson poll, while at the same time, seeing an improvement in his overall numbers here at home. 

In early June, UC Irvine polling showed that less than 4-in-10 (36%) of California voters approved of the job Newsom is doing as governor. 

When UC Irvine released a follow up poll on July 2nd, it showed Newsom with a 56% favorability rating. While not an exact comparison, it does show that whatever doubts about his job performance, he remains personally favorable.

Conversely, for Harris, recent weeks have seen the release of multiple reports detailing her “enthusiasm problem.”

As one Politico report noted, “many Democratic donors aren’t enthusiastic” about Harris’ potential return to the political arena. 

One major donor told the outlet that, “they fear her reemergence as a candidate would re-open still-fresh wounds from her defeat in 2024.” 

Another pointed out that “Kamala just reminds you we are in this complete shit storm” referring to Harris’ coverup of former President Biden’s cognitive decline while in office. 

In that same vein, Harris’ 2024 campaign was largely run on opposition to Trump, rather than her own platform. She articulated few of her own ideas for the economy, immigration, or foreign policy, so its understandable if voters are still wondering what she stands for or what policies she would pursue.

Taken together, Harris’ worse than expected polling and waning enthusiasm for her to run again for president may actually propel her to seek another office – California Governor. 

To be sure, that possibility has been well-discussed, but Harris’ refusal to either declare or refute her potential candidacy has been speculated to be about keeping her options open for another shot at the White House. 

Were Harris to run for governor, its widely assumed that she would have a sizable advantage, with virtually all polls suggesting that she would likely win.

That being said, the same issues that she has in national polling are showing up in state polling, albeit less clearly.

According to the aforementioned UC Irvine poll, in a binary choice for governor between Harris and an unnamed Republican, just 41% of California voters chose Harris, compared to 29% backing the Republican. 

Three-in-10 California voters said they were unsure (16%) or would not vote (14%).

If Harris decides that Sacramento is the better option than seeking the Oval Office, Newsom likely stands to benefit the most of all candidates Emerson tested. 

Buttigieg is popular, although his national profile is considerably smaller than Newsom’s, as is his fundraising ability, something Newsom has proven himself quite adept at. 

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And while Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro – tied with AOC at 7% – is a popular governor of a swing state, his appeal to an increasingly far-left primary base may hurt him, as it did when Harris skipped over nominating him as her running mate last year.

Ultimately, between now and 2028, these polls are all but guaranteed to see considerable movement, especially if Harris effectively takes herself out of the race by running for governor. 

Moreover, it is entirely possible that someone not included in this poll emerges, much in the same way former President Obama did in 2007-2008.

Nonetheless, at this point, the data is telling. Harris is significantly more vulnerable than a former VP should be, while Newsom may be stronger than appeared.

Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.

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