Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius is weighing in on the recent softness in the US dollar, despite the relative resilience of the American economy. Hatzius says the dollar is being dragged by deeper, structural forces that outweigh near-term economic strength.
“Our interpretation is that the cyclical tailwinds aren’t strong enough to overcome the more secular headwinds, i.e. still-high valuation as well as the greater difficulty of attracting unhedged capital inflows to cover the 4% of GDP current account deficit in a world where US economic performance looks less exceptional,” he writes.
Goldman sees further significant downside ahead for the dollar against a broad basket of currencies, including the euro, yuan, and yen.
Today the euro, pound and Swiss franc all rose to the best levels against the US dollar since 2021.
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