Arsenal have been handed one of the most difficult starts to the 2025-26 Premier League season. But just how much does that matter, and how many points will they need to target early on if they want to end their 21-year title drought?
After finishing second for three seasons in a row, Arsenal head into the 2025-26 Premier League campaign aiming to finally take that next step. But if they’re to mount another title charge, they’ll need to overcome a daunting early fixture list.
According to the Opta Power Rankings, only Manchester United face a tougher opening five games than Mikel Arteta’s side.
Arsenal begin the season with matches against United, Liverpool and Manchester City, along with home games against Leeds and Nottingham Forest, who will both present stern tests.
Things don’t get much easier in Matchday 6 with an away trip to Newcastle, a side Arsenal have struggled against in recent years. While the difficulty of the Gunners’ first 10 games is slightly easier than their opening five, it’s still rated as the eighth hardest in the division.
It’s looking improbable, then, that Arsenal will fly out of the blocks. In fact, clubs like Manchester City or Chelsea – who have far more favourable starts – might be the ones to set the early pace.
That means that, like last season, Arsenal might find themselves chasing from behind. Last year the gap proved too big to close and the question now is: how many points will they need from their first five and 10 games to remain in contention?
Each Side’s Premier League Fixtures Analysed:
Premier LeaguePremier League Fixtures: Who Has the Toughest Start to 2025-26?
7 hours ago Matt FurnissLast season offers us a useful comparison. Arsenal also had one of the toughest starts to the 2024-25 campaign – the fourth-hardest based on our data. They navigated it relatively well, remaining unbeaten across those five matches. However, they did drop points at home to Brighton and away to City. That late John Stones equaliser they conceded at the Etihad, even so early in the season, felt like a pivotal moment in the title race.
Arsenal emerged from their first five games with 11 points, but down in fourth, one point behind eventual winners Liverpool. It might have felt like they handled that tricky start quite well, but history tells us they faced an uphill battle to convert those 11 points into an eventual league title.
In Premier League history, 88 different teams have started a season by taking 11 or more points from their first five games. Twenty-one of those sides went on to win the league (23.9%).
But of the 21 sides to take exactly 11 points from their opening five matches, only four of them ended up winning the title (Blackburn in 1994-95, Manchester United in 2000-01 and 2010-11 and Leicester City in 2015-16). That’s a hit rate of just 19.0%.
Across the last 15 seasons, eventual Premier League champions have averaged 12.1 points from their opening five fixtures. Arsenal weren’t far off that last season, but it does show how impactful dropping points can be, even early on.
Let’s expand our view to Arsenal’s first 10 games now. Their opening 10 games last season were rated the seventh hardest in the league; very similar to what they’ll face this time around (eighth hardest). In was arguably this part of the campaign where Arsenal’s season came unstuck, as they toiled through a four-game stretch without a win, losing to Bournemouth on MD 8, drawing with Liverpool on MD 9, and losing to Newcastle (1-0) on MD 10. They then also drew to Chelsea on Matchday 11.
That meant that after 10 games Arsenal had 18 points and sat in fifth. At that stage of the season, they were already seven points behind leaders Liverpool. Arsenal’s 10-game pace didn’t bode well: in Premier League history, only three sides have won the title after taking just 18 points across their first 10 matches (United in 1992-93 and 2002-03, and Man City in 2020-21).
Arsenal will be determined to beat their points haul of 18 from last season, but history tells us they’ll need to beat it by quite a bit to set themselves up for a title charge. On average, Premier League champions have taken 22.6 points from their first 10 games of a season.
Starting slow really does hamper your chances down the line and often requires teams to subsequently put together a mammoth winning streak to make up the deficit.
In the three examples we mentioned earlier about Premier League champions who took 18 points from their opening 10 matches, United went on three separate 10+ unbeaten runs in 1992-93, including winning their last seven; went 18 games unbeaten to finish the 2002-03 season, winning 15 of those; and City won 15 games in a row between December 2020 and March 2021. That is the level of performance needed to arrest a slow start.
That’s not to say a fast start guarantees you a title. Of course, it helps – three points earned on the first matchday count for exactly the same as on the last day. But Arsenal know all too well that it’s not a guarantee of silverware. In 2022-23, they set a club record for the most points ever taken after 19 games in a top-flight season (50). Even then, they ended the season five points shy of City.
But history tells us that, usually, title winners earn their points early and often. Can Arsenal do the same in 2025-26?
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Arsenal’s 2025-26 Premier League Fixtures: Why Difficult Start Could Define their Season Opta Analyst.
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