From the safety of a press huddle on his way to the G7 in Canada, the Prime Minister announced he is not for turning on benefit cuts that will – according to his Government’s estimates – drive hundreds of thousands of disabled people into poverty.
It’s a bold declaration for a man who in recent days has U-turned on cuts to winter fuel payments and on establishing a national inquiry into grooming gangs.
The Government is planning to cut eligibility for personal independence payment (PIP) and freeze the (ill) health top-up within universal credit. These proposals are likely to come to Parliament this month, and have already drawn widespread opposition from charities, campaign groups and disabled people’s organisations.
Reports that there will be upwards of 150 Labour rebels are likely to prove off the mark when it comes to the vote. A swathe of Labour MPs have expressed unease about the proposed cuts, but numbers are always brought down by the whips.
If Labour MPs don’t send the PM a message, their voters will do it for them in elections next May
There was widespread unease among Labour MPs over the cuts to winter fuel payments too, but just one rebelled (along with the five others suspended for opposing the two-child benefit limit previously).
However, something does feel different this time: Labour MPs are fed up, and statements from Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall and from Starmer seem to be ratcheting up rebellion rather than quelling it.
Last week one Labour MP messaged me their unprintable verdict on Kendall’s piddly “concession” to allow claimants to keep their personal independence payments for a further three months if they fail to qualify under the new rules. Several others have publicly denounced it and confirmed their intention to rebel.
Since the policy was announced, Labour has taken a hammering in May’s local elections, the Prime Minister and Chancellor’s popularity has tanked, and Labour MPs are losing faith in the current leadership and their judgement.
The Prime Minister’s statement that “those who can work should work” belies a lack of understanding. That impression is reinforced by Kendall’s refusal to heed the request of the cross-party Work and Pensions Select Committee, chaired by the respected Labour MP Debbie Abrahams, to defer the proposals to allow for more scrutiny of the impact.
PIP is payable to disabled people to help with the added costs of living with a disability. Many of those disabled people work. I spoke to one person who works in the Department for Work and Pensions and is worried that they may lose PIP, and may have to give up work or reduce their hours. MPs report they are being lobbied on this by their constituents, who are spelling out the detail of how they will be impacted, and robotic lines from the Prime Minister and other ministers inflame rather pacify this.
So when the votes come on disability benefit cuts, I think we will see more than the lone Labour rebel on winter fuel payments. One MP told me the resolve among colleagues to oppose the policy was “getting stronger”, while another seasoned rebel told me they thought anything upwards of 50 Labour MPs would be a good result.
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But the real threat to Starmer’s plans to impoverish disabled people lies not in Westminster, but across the country, where a majority are opposed: polling by More in Common shows 58 per cent think the cuts are a bad idea. Supporters of every party in Westminster (Tory voters only narrowly) and non-voters are all united in opposing these cuts.
Starmer is already deeply unpopular. And driving through controversial policies is always more difficult if a leader’s authority is waning. New polling shows he is the most unpopular Prime Minister of modern times after 300 days in office, notably worse than Rishi Sunak was when leading the Tories to their worst ever general election defeat.
From the streets of the recent Runcorn by-election, Labour canvassers reported that it was cuts to winter fuel payments and disability benefits that came up again and again. If Labour MPs don’t send the Prime Minister a message, their voters will do it for them in May next year when a lot of Labour heartland seats are up for election in the Welsh and Scottish national elections and in local elections in England covering key cities such as London.
The Prime Minister says he is not for turning, but Starmer will soon realise he can either abandon these cuts or face the consequences.
Andrew Fisher served as the Labour Party’s executive director of policy under Jeremy Corbyn between 2015 and 2019
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