Despite the injuries that have struck the Arizona Diamondbacks’ pitching staff in recent weeks, the team has fought back and persevered, winning five of its last six games.
The losses of Corbin Burnes and Justin Martinez, among others, have affected the bullpen and starting rotation.
The disappointing first few months of the season have been one to forget for Diamondbacks fans, but the recent uptick in performance may have renewed excitement for the Diamondbacks’ playoff hopes.
The question is: What are the Diamondbacks’ playoff odds as we near the midpoint of the season?
Let’s take a look at Arizona’s playoff odds and probabilities in-depth to see where the team stands.
What are the Arizona Diamondbacks’ playoff odds?
— According to FanGraphs, Arizona’s chances of making the playoffs sit at 35.1%, with a 32.9% shot at clinching a Wild Card berth.
— Baseball Reference has the D-backs’ postseason odds at an even lower 23.7% chance. They also have the Diamondbacks’ average wins at 83.7 and average losses at 78.3.
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–Despite having a -30.9% change in postseason odds in the last month, the Diamondbacks’ recent series wins have aided their postseason percentage +3.1% in the last week. They will need these wins to become regular if they want their odds to keep climbing.
— Looking at MLB postseason probabilities, the Diamondbacks have a 34% probability of making the Wild Card Series and an 18% chance of making the Division Series. FanDuel Sportsbook also has the Diamondbacks postseason odds at +225 to make it and -290 to miss it.
The Diamondbacks (36-35) are still very much in playoff contention, just three games from the Wild Card, but the team needs to get it together sooner rather than later before GM Mike Hazen has some decisions to make come deadline time.
ESPN’s Buster Olney listed the Diamondbacks’ Mike Hazen as an executive under the most pressure.
Hazen will have a lot of say about what happens at this year’s trade deadline because if Arizona decides to trade talent, he’ll dangle a highly marketable set of players. Josh Naylor (Could the Mariners be interested? Or the Giants?), Eugenio Suarez (Yankees would be in on him), Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen would become some of the best options, and other GMs like to trade with Hazen because they find him communicative and decisive.
But Hazen has also seen success when his team has been on the fringe of contention. Two years ago, the D-backs won 84 regular-season games and, after upsetting the Phillies in the playoffs, came within (three) victories of winning the World Series. Arizona just lost Corbin Burnes and reliever Justin Martinez to major injuries, but with an extraordinary core of talent, could Hazen add help, rather than trade away players? Knowing that Burnes will miss most or all of next year, could Hazen start constructing the team’s 2026 rotation? A lot is riding on his choices this trade season.
The Diamondbacks will look to build on their recent form as they head to Toronto to face the Blue Jays in a series starting Tuesday.
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