A powerful storm that struck Alexandria at dawn on Saturday has sparked numerous questions regarding its connection to various scientific studies pointing to extreme climate changes affecting the coastal governorate. Such extreme natural phenomena, including severe storms, could be a result, with a potential for the city’s submergence by the end of the current century.
According to a research paper published in the international scientific journal “Weather and Climate Extreme,” affiliated with the international scientific publisher ScienceDirect, the Alexandria storm signals a greater danger and a high likelihood of its recurrence.
The study’s lead author, Dr. Amira Nasser, a researcher at the Egyptian Meteorological Authority (EMA) and expert in climate change predictions and the recurrence of extreme weather phenomena, stated that the atmospheric phenomenon that hit the city last Saturday dawn represents one of the clearest pieces of evidence of accelerating climate change. She emphasized that what is being witnessed today was anticipated to occur decades later but has already begun.
She explained that what occurred was not a hurricane in the conventional sense, but rather the result of a cumulonimbus thundercloud formation that produced what is scientifically known as a “downburst.” This is a sudden and powerful rush of cold air from the clouds toward the Earth’s surface, leading to intense winds, unprecedented hail, and rain for this time of year. This created a scene akin to hurricanes observed in parts of North America, also explaining the intertwined lightning patterns witnessed in Alexandria’s sky.
The researcher confirmed that these extreme weather events are no longer rare as they once were; instead, they are occurring at an accelerating pace. She noted that even the most pessimistic scientific forecasts had predicted changes of this magnitude would occur with greater frequency and intensity by 2100, but they are now expected closer to 2050, or perhaps even 2030. This is a warning the scientific community has been issuing for years.
When asked about the likelihood of the phenomenon recurring in other areas, Nasser stated that coastal regions, especially Alexandria, remain at risk, even though the onset of summer usually mitigates such threats. However, she cautioned that coming years will see an increasing recurrence of these phenomena, including severe heatwaves, which are also manifestations of climate change.
The researcher also addressed the extensive urban development along Alexandria’s coastline, emphasizing that the core problem lies in construction within environmentally high-risk areas. These areas are experiencing continuous land erosion and rising sea levels, directly threatening the cafes and buildings erected there. She stressed the critical need to study and implement climate change adaptation measures, such as constructing sea barriers and artificial land formations to absorb the impact of potential disasters, rather than exposing existing land to direct peril.
Concluding her remarks, Nasser mentioned her involvement in scientific research that predicted a doubling in the number and intensity of extreme weather phenomena by mid-century. She stated that the events witnessed in Alexandria’s summer might not be the last, as intense heatwaves contribute to fueling these phenomena with energy. This makes forecasting them more challenging and significantly increases the need for clear, proactive plans.
Alexandria storm: A dire warning of coastal peril and future submergence Egypt Independent.
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