Index Value: The Consumer Confidence Index rose to 98.0 in May 2025, up from 86.0 in April 2025, surpassing the consensus estimate of 87.0.
Present Situation Index: Declined to 135.9 from 133.5 in April 2025, indicating a slightly less optimistic view of current business and labor market conditions. Best since February
Expectations Index: Jumped to 72.8 from 54.4 in April 2025, reflecting improved consumer optimism about short-term prospects for income, business, and labor markets, though still below the 80 threshold often associated with recession risks. Best since February
Key Drivers:
The significant rise in the Expectations Index suggests growing consumer optimism, potentially driven by easing concerns over tariffs or economic policies following April's pessimism.
The Present Situation Index was less which indicates some caution regarding current economic conditions, possibly due to mixed signals in employment or business conditions.
Context:
This marks a reversal from five consecutive months of declining confidence, with April 2025 hitting a nearly five-year low of 86.0.
The 10.9-point increase from April to May was a notable surprise, beating expectations significantly.
Economic Implications:
The rebound in confidence could signal increased consumer spending, which accounts for ~70% of U.S. GDP, potentially supporting economic growth.
However, the Expectations Index below 80 still suggests some caution about recession risks in the near term.
Survey Details:
Conducted by The Conference Board with Toluna, based on an online sample of ~5,000 households, assessing current and future business, employment, and income conditions.
Data cutoff for May 2025 results was approximately mid-May, with final results released on May 27, 2025
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com. Read More Details
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