It's a very consensus view that tariffs will likely have an adverse impact on the US economy and that the recession probabilities have gone up. The market priced that in soon after the April 2 announcement, but started to price out that view after Trump's pause on April 9.
The market is now looking forward to positive resolutions that will eventually trigger the opposite effect: the US economy will bounce back and economic activity will rise. That's why trade talks and negotiations are critical. If they disappoint the market, then we will likely go back to price in the recession.
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