The Treasury says " The borrowing estimate is $391 billion higher than announced in February 2025, primarily due to the lower beginning-of-quarter cash balance and projected lower net cash flows, partially offset by lower Federal Reserve System Open Market Account (SOMA) redemptions ($60 billion)" but also adds "Excluding the lower than assumed beginning-of-quarter cash balance, the current quarter borrowing estimate is $53 billion lower than announced in February."
I wouldn't get too excited about the shift but it raises the stakes for Wednesday's quarterly refunding announcement at 8:30 am ET ( the same time as Q1 GDP).
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