Goldman Sachs has revised its U.S. tariff expectations sharply higher for 2025, warning that escalating trade tensions could weigh significantly on growth, inflation, and employment. In a note to clients, the bank said it now expects the average U.S. tariff rate to rise by 15 percentage points next year—up from a previous baseline of 10 percentage points and in line with its earlier risk scenario.
The upward revision is largely driven by the expectation that Trump will announce a sweeping “reciprocal tariff” regime averaging 15% across all U.S. trading partners on April 2. While exemptions for specific products and countries are likely, Goldman estimates the effective impact on average tariffs would still amount to a 9-point increase.
In response, the firm has raised its year-end 2025 core PCE inflation forecast by 0.5 percentage points to 3.5%, citing the inflationary impact of higher import costs. GDP growth is now projected to slow to just 1.0% on a Q4/Q4 basis, down 0.5 percentage points from prior estimates, while the unemployment rate is expected to climb to 4.5% by year-end. Reflecting the deteriorating outlook, Goldman has also increased its 12-month recession probability to 35%, citing weaker consumer and business sentiment and signs that policymakers may be more willing to accept near-term economic pain in pursuit of broader policy goals.
With real income growth already decelerating—projected to average just 1.4% in 2025—Goldman cautions that the economy may be entering a more fragile phase, where sentiment and policy risks exert greater drag than in recent years.
GS still see Fed rate cuts this year, citing a scare on growth
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.Hence then, the article about goldman sachs says 35 chance of recession from 20 in 12 months was published today ( ) and is available on forex live ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( Goldman Sachs says 35% chance of recession (from 20%) in 12 months )
Also on site :
- Disgraced former Centinela Valley schools Superintendent Jose Fernandez dies
- Gold Star Distribution Inc., Issues Recall of Certain FDA-Regulated Products in Three States Including Drugs, Devices, Cosmetics, Human Foods, and Pet Foods
- ’Beverly Hills, 90210’s Jason Priestley Shares Bold Callout After ‘Worst’ Travel Experience