“One of our big tasks is to persuade our colleagues in Europe to increase their defence forces.” Not words from Republican President Donald Trump in 2025, but from Democratic president John F Kennedy in 1963.
“While recognising the military interests of the Free World, we should consider very hard the narrower interests of the United States,” Kennedy told his National Security Council. No one in Europe can say they hadn’t been warned.
Repeated American administrations – not just the two Trump administrations – have been critical of most Nato allies for cutting investment in their armed forces and instead reaping the benefits of the Pax Americana, the peace from the post-Second World War economic and social dominance by the US, and from the so-called peace dividend following the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Trump’s threats during his first term in office to withdraw the US from Nato altogether, unless other member states took on a fairer share of the burden of European security, should have been enough of a hint to rebuild European military capability which had been hollowed out during decades of cost-saving cuts since the end of the Cold War.
But the warm bath of Democratic control of the White House under Joe Biden allowed Europe, with some exceptions, to push the issue to the back of the queue. Taken alongside pandemic spending, rampant inflation and mishandled equipment budgets, it sometimes seems only luck that the UK has a standing Army at all.
Now events have sped up. Although the US administration has stated that it wants a lasting settlement between Russia and Ukraine, the breakneck speed at which Trump is moving has left the Europeans, including the UK, suffering from diplomatic whiplash.
Trump’s 90-minute phone call with Russian president Vladimir Putin only served to underline the concern that European capitals are playing catch-up on everything from tariffs to tech policy. Moreover, officials are finding it hard to even communicate with the US administration on a day-to-day basis. “They’ve sacked all the people we used to talk to,” one diplomat told The i Paper.
Without the usual backchannels, European officials have been reliant on set-piece meetings, making the Munich Security Conference this weekend absolutely crucial to pinning down what the US is really saying.
America’s European military presence won’t last forever
The trouble is that different parts of the US administration are saying conflicting things. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth – who wears a stars and stripes handkerchief in his suit pocket and gives off the air of an American college footballer knocking down his opponents like skittles – spent Thursday saying Ukraine wouldn’t be involved in a negotiated peace.
On Friday, along came the more intellectual and considered Vice President JD Vance who told Foreign Secretary David Lammy in Munich the opposite. Ukraine would have a place at the table, Lammy reported from their conversation.
Hopping over to Warsaw on Friday, Hesgeth popped up again to warn that Europeans cannot assume that America’s military presence on the continent will last forever, as he praised Poland for its high level of spending on defence and hosting of US troops. How long that remains the position is unclear.
Amid the feast of meetings in Germany and the famine of daily diplomacy as officials struggle to get hold of their US counterparts, European capitals are hoping for enough time with US cover in Ukraine to build up their domestic war chests. That’s before they even contemplate how to pay for increased defence spending.
In Munich the word “appeasement” is being bandied around. No one thinks Moscow’s ambitions are limited. Even if a fragile truce between Russia and Ukraine holds in the short term, Putin has repeatedly talked of a war between Russia, the victim, and Nato the aggressor.
In the meantime, with the US unilaterally deciding to throw out Ukraine’s entry to Nato, any promises made in the next few months will be dependent on the goodwill of European allies and subject to their own domestic pressures.
Trump would like to see European Nato members spend 5 per cent of gross domestic product on defence. Mark Rutte, the Nato secretary-general, understands more than most the need to respond.
Speaking at a press conference on Wednesday, he said he expects allies to increase defence spending to “north of 3 per cent” of GDP “rather sooner than later”. Good luck, as they say, with that.
An attack on all
Sir Keir Starmer is preparing to agree a figure that will be lower than 3 per cent. With Labour’s manifesto pledging to find a “pathway” to 2.5 per cent and competing domestic pressures on the Budget, sluggish growth and little fiscal wiggle room, it seems inconceivable any more cash could be found without extra borrowing.
PMQs was a disaster for Kemi Badenoch – Labour cannot believe its luck
Read MoreDitto France, churning through prime ministers as president Emmanuel Macron seeks to control his runaway budget deficit. But there could be more positive news for Ukraine from Germany’s upcoming elections. Conservative Friedrich Merz is on track to win and takes a hawkish view on European defence.
Trump’s threats not to come to the aid of a Nato ally if it fails to spend enough on defence undermines the fundamental principle of the alliance: that an attack against one member state is regarded as an attack on all.
Volodymyr Zelensky will be pressing both European leaders and the US to act as guarantors if Russia reneges on any deal. But you can see a scenario where no one would want to risk provoking the Russian bear on their own and waiting for Nato to move as one body. Splitting the defence alliance apart would be a huge win for Moscow.
That’s why Starmer was so keen to talk up Ukraine joining Nato – even if it puts the UK at odds with the US. Starmer knows no one country can protect Kyiv on its own.
Capricious Trump
And what happens if the capricious Trump fails in his role as peacemaker, gets bored and washes his hands of the whole business before Europe can get its financial ducks in a row?
One possible way Ukraine and allies can keep Trump engaged in resolving the conflict is through the promise of lucrative deals for the US defence industry.
In fact, the deal-making has already begun. In Warsaw, Hegseth praised Poland as a “model ally” and said the Polish armed forces would be exempt from Trump’s recent freeze of the US State Department’s foreign military financing programme, which enables eligible partner nations to purchase American kit.
If on Valentine’s Day the usual maxim is that the way to a man’s heart is through his stomach, there is an alternative approach for the US: the way to Trump’s heart is through his wallet. He’s determined to get the Europeans to pay. One way or another.
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( Europe should have listened to JFK )
Also on site :
- Teen shot, killed at Torrance pool party was reportedly picking up sibling
- Tech Billionaire Reveals Plans To Leave Fortune To All 106 Of His Children
- Fans Are Excited About Tarek & Heather Rae El Moussa's Latest Update