Using the tankathon simulator, I simmed the NHL draft lottery once again, this time coming up with Nashville on top. In this version, the third favorite, by today’s odds, was able to grab the top spot and draft center James Hagens.
With elite hockey sense, dynamic offensive capabilities, and a knack for making his teammates better, James Hagens is considered a top prospect for the 2025 NHL Draft. He projects as a potential first-line center in the NHL. Check back next Friday for another NHL Mock Draft.
Current Lottery Probabilities
(good as of the morning of February 7th, 2025)
San Jose 25.5%Chicago 13.5%Nashville 11.5%Seattle 9.5%Buffalo 8.5%Philadelphia 7.5%Pittsburgh 6.5%St. Louis 6%Anaheim 5%Utah 3.5%Montreal 3%NY Islanders 0%NY Rangers 0%
NHL Mock Draft 3.0
1. Nashville – James Hagens, C, Boston College (NTDP)
Feb 7, 2024; Plymouth, MI, USA; USAs James Hagens (10) and John Whipple (4) battles along the boards for the puck with Finland’s Markus Loponen (14) during the third period of the 2024 U18s Five Nations Tournament at USA Hockey Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports2. San Jose – Roger McQueen, C, Brandon (WHL)
3.Chicago – Matthew Schaefer, D, Erie (OHL)
Erie Otters defenseman Matthew Schaefer, right, controls the puck against the Kitchener Rangers at Erie Insurance Arena in Erie on Nov. 23, 2024.4. NY Islanders – Michael Misa, C, Saginaw (OHL)
5. Seattle – Porter Martone, RW, Brampton (OHL)
6. Buffalo – Anton Frondell, C, Djurgården (J20)
7. Philadelphia – Jackson Smith, D, Tri-City (WHL)
8. Pittsburgh – Victor Eklund, LW, Djurgården (HA)
9. St. Louis – Caleb Desnoyers, C, Moncton (QJMHL)
10. Anaheim – Cole Reschny, C, Victoria (WHL)
11. Utah – Logan Hensler, D, Wisconsin (NCAA)
12. Montreal – William Moore, C, U18 (NTDP)
13. NY Rangers – Ivan Ryabkin, C, Dynamo Moscow (MHL)
14. Boston – Malcolm Spence, LW, Erie (OHL)
15. Columbus – Milton Gastrin, C, Modo (J20)
16. Montreal (via Calgary) – Justin Carbonneau, RW, Blainville-Boisbriand (QJMHL)
17. Ottawa – Radim Mrtka, D, Trinec (Czechia)
18. Vancouver – Luka Radivojevic, D, Muskegon (USHL)
19. Detroit – L.J. Mooney, C, U18 (NTDP)
20. Nashville (via Tampa) – Ben Kevan, RW, Des Moines (USHL)
21. Calgary (via NJ) – Adam Benak, C, Youngstown (USHL)
22. Philadelphia (via Colorado) – Jakob Ihs Wozniak, RW, Lulea (J20)
23. Los Angeles – Charlie Trethewey, D, U18 (NTDP)
24. Calgary (via Florida) – Jack Murtagh, LW, U18 (NTDP)
25. Columbus (via Minnesota) – Brady Martin, C, Soo (OHL)
26. Carolina – Lynden Lakovic, LW, Moose Jaw (WHL)
27. Nashville (via Vegas) – Carter Bear, LW, Everett (WHL)
28. San Jose (via Dallas) – Jake O’Brien, C, Brantford (OHL)
29. Chicago (via Toronto) – Jack Ivankovic, G, Brampton (OHL)
Brampton Steelheads goaltender Jack Ivankovic watches teammate Spencer Sova control a loose puck during their Sept. 28, 2024, Ontario Hockey League game against the Erie Otters at Erie Insurance Arena. Sova was Erie’s team captain for its 2024-25 season.30. Philadelphia (via Edmonton) – Sascha Boumedienne, D, Boston U (NCAA)
31. Winnipeg – Cameron Reid, D, Kitchener (OHL)
32. Washington – Kurban Limatov, D, Dynamo Moscow (MHL)
The NHL Draft Lottery: A Guide to How It Works
The NHL Entry Draft is a crucial event for all NHL teams, offering the opportunity to select the best young talent available. But the order in which teams get to pick isn’t determined simply by their regular season record. That’s where the NHL Draft Lottery comes in, adding an element of chance and excitement to the process. This article explains how it works.
Determining Lottery Teams
The lottery involves the 16 teams that missed the playoffs in the preceding season. The odds of winning the lottery, and thus the right to the first overall pick, are weighted based on each team’s regular season record. The team with the fewest points has the best odds, while the team with the most points among the non-playoff teams has the lowest odds.
The Lottery Draw
The actual lottery drawing is a somewhat secretive process overseen by an independent accounting firm. Fourteen numbered balls are placed in a machine. Four balls are drawn randomly, and the four-digit combination they create is matched against pre-assigned combinations for each of the 16 teams. This process is repeated to determine the order of the top two picks. The remaining draft order (picks 3 through 16) is then determined by reverse order of regular season points, with the lowest-placed team getting the third pick, and so on.
Odds and Probabilities
As mentioned, the odds of winning the lottery are weighted. The team finishing with the fewest points in the regular season has the highest percentage chance of winning the first overall pick. The odds decrease incrementally for each team based on their standing in the standings. It’s important to note that even the team with the best odds doesn’t have a guaranteed shot at the first pick. There’s always an element of chance involved, and any of the 16 teams could theoretically win the lottery.
Changes to the Lottery System
The NHL has tweaked the lottery system over the years to address concerns about teams deliberately tanking games to improve their draft odds. One significant change was the implementation of a system where only the top two picks are determined by the lottery. This change was meant to make it so a team could not guarantee itself a top 3 pick. This reduces the incentive to finish last, as that only guarantees the best odds of getting one of the top two picks.
Why Have a Lottery?
The primary purpose of the NHL Draft Lottery is to create parity within the league. By giving the weaker teams a chance to draft top prospects, the lottery helps prevent the stronger teams from dominating year after year. It also adds excitement and unpredictability to the draft process, making it a more engaging event for fans. The lottery encourages teams to compete hard throughout the season, rather than simply giving up when playoff contention becomes unlikely.
Understanding the Implications
The NHL Draft Lottery has significant implications for the future of NHL franchises. Landing a top pick can be a franchise-altering event, allowing teams to acquire generational talents who can transform their fortunes for years to come. The lottery adds an element of drama and anticipation to the draft, making it one of the most important off-season events in the NHL calendar. While some fans may debate the fairness of the system, it remains a key component of the league’s efforts to maintain competitive balance and keep the league exciting.
The NHL Entry Draft: From Territorial Claims to Global Scouting
The NHL Entry Draft, a crucial event for building a franchise, has a history as dynamic as the sport itself. It wasn’t always the televised spectacle we know today. Its evolution reflects the changing landscape of hockey, from regional dominance to global talent acquisition.
Early Days: Territorial Rights and a Simple Process
The early drafts were a far cry from the modern event. Initially, teams claimed junior players within their geographic territories. This system, while simple, often limited opportunities for players outside those designated areas. Formalized drafting began in 1963, but it was a relatively low-key affair. Teams often selected players they were already familiar with, and the process lacked the intense scouting and analysis that characterizes today’s draft. The focus was less on identifying hidden gems and more on solidifying existing regional connections. These early drafts were more about maintaining the status quo than strategically building for the future. There was no lottery, no complex scouting systems, and little fanfare.
Evolution and Global Expansion
Over the decades, the draft evolved significantly. A pivotal moment came in 1995 with the introduction of a lottery system. Initially weighted towards the worst-performing teams, the lottery aimed to create parity and discourage “tanking” for top picks. This added a layer of excitement and unpredictability, making the draft a more compelling event for fans. The draft also expanded its scope to include players from all over the world, reflecting the increasing globalization of hockey.
No longer were teams limited to North American talent; they now had access to a wider pool of players from Europe, Russia, and beyond. This global expansion necessitated the development of more sophisticated scouting networks, as teams sought to identify and evaluate talent from diverse leagues and playing styles. The draft has grown from a simple selection process to a major event, complete with extensive media coverage, prospect rankings, and intense scrutiny. It’s a crucial moment for teams to build their future, and for young players to realize their dreams. The NHL Entry Draft, though its origins are humble, is now a vital part of the league’s landscape, shaping the future of the game one pick at a time.
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