Trump factor could drag Gaza ceasefire over the line, and expose Biden failures ...Middle East

The ceasefire deal to end the war in Gaza that appears closer than ever is largely the same as the terms established by the Biden administration last May. 

“We’re on the brink of a proposal that I laid out months ago finally coming to fruition,” Joe Biden said in a valedictory speech Monday night.

But Biden will not be the president credited with the deal if it is struck at last after 15 months of horror. Sources on all sides point to the influence of the incoming Trump operation as key to reviving dormant negotiations.

Israeli officials briefed newspapers that Donald Trump’s incoming envoy to the Middle East, Steven Withkoff, has applied pressure to prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to accept the compromises necessary to secure a deal.

The draft agreements being circulated suggest the Israeli leader did finally bend. Terms include a withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, and several phases of ceasefire leading to an end of the war – conditions that Netanyahu had sworn to resist.

Trump also applied pressure to Hamas and its allies by threatening there would be “hell to pay” if Israeli hostages were not returned by his inauguration on 20 January.

Some analysts suggest this was a hollow threat given that Gaza has already been largely destroyed by 15 months of bombing. But Hamas claims to have made new concessions for the sake of a deal, while maintaining the position that Israeli hostages in Gaza would only be released in return for a full ceasefire.

Qatari mediators, asked what had changed to make a deal possible, pointed to the influence of Trump officials.

Israel’s ultra-nationalist right, which has nurtured hopes of permanent occupation and settlement of Gaza, is describing the agreement as a betrayal by Trump, who showered Netanyahu with gifts in his first term – from moving the US embassy to Jerusalem, to recognising Israel’s annexation of Syria’s Golan Heights – and was expected to do so again.

“It could be that we are the first to pay a price for Trump,” said Israeli journalist and Netanyahu ally Erel Segal, adding that he expected the new president to allow Israel to retain control of north Gaza and restrict humanitarian aid.

Hard-right former Israeli security official Yuval Malka urged the government to create “facts on the ground” before Trump takes office.

There may yet be sweeteners for the Israeli right and poison pills for the Palestinians. The Trump administration could reportedly green-light new Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank – illegal under international law – or even full annexation of the territory, as a form of compensation.

But any kind of ceasefire at the dawn of Trump’s second term would mark a sharp contrast with more than a year of failure to secure a deal under Biden, whose top diplomat, Antony Blinken, made more than a dozen trips to the region and a series of optimistic predictions only to return empty-handed each time.

That the final terms are so close to those of draft agreements in May is a bitter pill for Palestinians to swallow, as the thousands of deaths in Gaza since might have been prevented. Many Palestinian analysts place the blame squarely at the feet of Biden.

“Why the negotiations did not bear fruit for the past eight months is basically that Biden refused to pressure Netanyahu,” said Muhammad Shehada, a journalist and analyst from Gaza with connections to the mediation teams.

Biden and Blinken backed Netanyahu’s conditions that were designed to sabotage talks and were opposed by Israeli military chiefs, he added, such as retaining a permanent presence across almost one-third of Gaza.

Biden occasionally threatened to use US leverage over Israel – critically the arms sales that enabled it to keep fighting – over Israel crossing red lines such as the offensive in Rafah or blocking humanitarian aid to north Gaza. But he always pulled back.

Gaza ceasefire deal 'closer than ever' after 'breakthrough' in Doha

Palestinians have reasons to fear the new Trump administration, featuring a cabinet stacked with pro-Israel hawks, many avowed supporters of Israel’s settlement enterprise.

But of the president-elect himself there is more curiosity, who has styled himself as a leader who ends wars, and could be in need of an early win after walking back his commitment to a swift resolution in Ukraine.

Shehada said he has heard from several well-connected sources of one particular Trump ambition for his second term. “They are all saying that he genuinely wants a Nobel Peace Prize,” he said.

Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( Trump factor could drag Gaza ceasefire over the line, and expose Biden failures )

Also on site :

• Slovak PM Fico raises neutrality before NATO summit
• Numbrix 9 - June 18
• BACK