Everyone is terribly worried. Last September Nigel Farage told the Reform UK conference, the annual jamboree for a party that didn’t even exist five years previously, that it could win the next general election. At the time this seemed absurd, the recent election of five MPs and the dear leader finally reaching Westminster at the eighth attempt notwithstanding. (Finding his way to a surgery for constituents in Clacton has, alas, proved rather harder.)
But then Donald Trump – a man whom Farage loves, in roughly the same way teenage girls love boy bands – won the popular vote in the US. And Farage announced that Elon Musk, not content with buggering up one country, had entered talks about bankrolling his party. Suddenly, media organisations are putting out reports and podcasts with headlines like (this from the Financial Times) “Can Nigel Farage turn Reform into a serious contender for government?” or (Politics JOE): “Nigel Farage will be the next UK Prime Minister.” “All Starmer’s failings,” warns Guardian columnist Aditya Chakrabortty, are “fuelling the rise of Reform.”
It’s true that, for those of us who don’t much like Farage or what he stands for – which is, despite what that coverage would suggest, most of us – his proven ability to survive failure and scandals that would ruin most politicians is unnerving.
The party may have only won five seats, a long way from the 13 suggested by the general election exit poll. But it pulled in 4 million votes – half a million more than the Lib Dems – and came second in 89 more seats. Farage has also grown bafflingly popular on TikTok, suggesting a new, more youthful following, too.
And British politics does feel ripe for a shake-up. Incumbents are struggling in elections everywhere, and the Labour government plunged into unpopularity extremely quickly. At the same time, the Tories remain in denial about the depth of their defeat and have shown little interest in asking how they came to be so hated: they’re assuming an unpopular government will mean an inevitable swing back to them, in roughly the same way Ed Miliband’s Labour did between 2010 and 2015, and with very possibly the same result. Given all that – given Trump – would you really bet against Farage on the steps of Downing Street?
Well – yes. For a start, the next election is ages away – constitutionally, Trump should leave office several months before Keir Starmer will be forced to call it – so all predictions made now are essentially meaningless. If, by 2029, inflation falls and the NHS improves, Labour should have a chance. If not, all bets are off.
What’s more, in last July’s election, those 4 million Reform voters served mainly to split the right-wing vote. The liberal left has often tried splitting the anti-Tory vote as a strategy. It has rarely resulted in a majority of liberal left MPs.
There are other reasons for cynicism about Farage’s prospects. YouGov may have found him to be the “least unpopular” current party leader. But just 30 per cent of Britons have a favourable view of him, compared to 61 per cent against: hardly anyone is undecided, leaving little room for substantial movement. Those who do like him are also, to put it delicately, disproportionately in the age group least likely to be voting next time around.
His closeness to deeply unpopular figures like Musk and Trump is unlikely to win over waverers; neither are his views on the NHS. Sure, there’s TikTok – but as any Jeremy Corbyn could tell you, a youthful social media following is not the same as votes where you need them.
There are questions, too, as to whether Farage has the people skills required to be a statesman, not a rabble rouser. It’s one thing to be thin-skinned in the face of opposition or criticism; quite another to have a habit of falling out with any party colleague who begins attaining prominence.
Even if Reform can find enough plausible candidates and campaigners to become a serious party, it’s not clear its leader could preside over a system which required him to be but one member of a team. He would ironically have a far better chance in the French presidential system that spat out Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen.
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Read MoreThat doesn’t mean we can entirely stop worrying. Unexpected things do keep happening, and Farage keeps outperforming expectations. But the danger is that, like a monster in a Christmas ghost story, the more we believe in Farage, the more real he will become.
Starmer’s Labour seems willing to adopt the anti-immigration language of the hard right, but both unable and unwilling to do the things – initiate a boom; turn the clock back to 1973 – that might rob it of its power. Sure, immigration numbers will probably fall. If you think that’ll shut these guys up, I’ve got a used Christmas tree to sell you.
Any politician that wants to defeat Farage should spend more time explaining why he’s wrong, and less claiming he’s right but that they’d do it better. This is the time for New Year’s resolutions. In 2025, we should all stop letting the leader of a party with five MPs set the terms of debate.
Jonn Elledge is a columnist at the New Statesman
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