The Two-Way Street of Wrigley Field’s Park Factors ...Middle East

We’ve talked a lot about – and heard the front office talk about – how difficult it was to hit at Wrigley Field this past season.

It generally came up in the context of some rough home-road splits for a handful of Cubs batters, and indeed, Wrigley Field was tough on hitters this year across the board:

Among the 30 main ballparks in 2024, Wrigley Field had the 2nd lowest BA & SLG (home & road teams combined). It was a tough place to hit.@baseball_ref @Stathead pic.twitter.com/ml38iv2z15

But the thing is, that’s not just the Cubs’ offense getting hurt by playing at a tough Wrigley Field at home, you know? It’s also the Cubs’ pitching staff being advantaged by pitching in a tough offensive environment.

I’d like to believe the Cubs’ real pitching performance at home helped skew the numbers a bit – as in, true talent for the pitchers was driving down the numbers, rather than them simply also being advantaged by Wrigley’s tendencies. That’s probably a tiny bit the case, but the fact that the Cubs had a 3.08 ERA (3.59 FIP) at home, and a 4.53(!) ERA (4.52 FIP) on the road kinda hurts that argument. That is to say, for as much as we hope a Wrigley reversion means improvement in the Cubs’ offense … it’s likely going to mean some regression in Cubs pitching home performance.

Another way to look at Wrigley Field in 2024 is to focus specifically on home runs, which is one of the most impactful things that nevertheless varies wildly based on factors outside the individual player’s control (park factors, weather, the baseball, etc.).

This past season, Wrigley Field was the toughest on homers in all of baseball:

how much extra distance baseballs travel at each MLB stadium, on average last season pic.twitter.com/xcC0geoKO3

So that’s more than 6 feet lost on average for batted balls at Wrigley this past season, which absolutely could impact the volume of homers allowed by the Cubs’ pitching staff, regardless of how well they actually executed their pitches.

Consider Javier Assad as a perfect example: Assad posted a 2.47 ERA at Wrigley Field in 2024, but a 4.87 ERA on the road. That, despite his K/BB numbers actually being better on the road. What was the difference? It was almost entirely based on the enormous spread between his homer rate at home (0.52 per 9) and on the road (1.85(!) per 9). And that, in turn, was almost entirely based on the enormous spread between his HR/FB ratio at home (4.8%) and on the road (18.8%(!)).

Moreover, because Wrigley Field’s proclivity for home runs is uniquely tethered to the weather, we cannot presume it’ll play the same way in 2025. Some natural home run regression – as we discussed with respect to Shōta Imanaga, specifically – should be expected.

You just hope that, if it happens, the staff pitches well enough to make up for the difference, and the offense likewise takes advantage of a Friendlier Confines.

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