Preview: June non-farm payrolls by the numbers -- the headwinds are starting to blow ...Middle East

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Preview: June non-farm payrolls by the numbers -- the headwinds are starting to blow
What's expected:Consensus estimate +190K (Goldman Sachs at the low at +140K, FAO Economics at the high at +250K)May +272K vs +185K expectedPrivate +160K estimate vs +229K priorUnemployment rate consensus estimate: 4.0% vs 4.0% priorParticipation rate: 62.5% priorPrior underemployment U6 7.4%Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.9% y/y vs +4.1% priorAvg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% vs +0.4% priorAvg weekly hours exp 34.3 vs 34.3 priorJune jobs so far:ADP report +150K vs +160K expected and +157K priorISM services employment 46.1 vs 47.1 (third-worst since pandemic)ISM manufacturing employment 49.3 vs 51.1 priorChallenger job cuts 48.8K vs 64.7K prior (four month low)Philly employment -2.5 vs -7.9 pr

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