Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, could be in trouble after Gadi Eisenkot, the leader of the opposition, was asked to form the next government, after elections last month left no political grouping with a majority in parliament.
The request by Isaac Herzog, the Israeli president, triggered a 28-day negotiation period (with the possibility of a 14-day extension) during which time Eisenkot will try to put together a workable coalition. If he fails, the opportunity will likely fall to Netanyahu.
Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff, faces a tough battle to form a stable government, after his Yashar party and its allies won 48 seats, significantly short of the 61 needed for a Knesset majority.
Netanyahu’s bloc of parties won 53 seats, but the remaining 19 seats are held by Arab parties, which have vowed not to enter into government with the current prime minister. Arab parties won an unprecedented number of seats this year after a high turn-out of Israeli-Arab voters, who make up 20 per cent of the electorate.
On Sunday, Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported that United Arab List intended to support an Eisenkot-led coalition, even without a coalition agreement. Mansour Abbas, the leader of United Arab List, previously said his party would “act in accordance with the will of the Arab public, which is to change the government”.
Consultations with incoming lawmakers saw 67 recommendations for Eisenkot to be prime minister, compared to 46 for Netanyahu. In a further blow to Netanyahu, the Ultra-Orthodox Jewish United Torah Judaism party, which holds seven seats, refused to recommend Netanyahu after negotiations over preserving the draft exemption for Haredi Yeshiva students.
However, unless he pushes for a minority government, Eisenkot will likely need to convince the more right-wing elements of his bloc to accept working with the support of the Arab parties while also making concessions to the ultra-orthodox parties, which may mean turning his back on his promise to exempt just three per cent of each draft cohort.
Gadi Eisenkot has been asked to try to form a new government in Israel (Photo: Jack Guez/AFP via Getty Images)Before the elections, several of the opposition parties committed to rejecting Israeli-Arab support.
Ahron Bregman, a senior teaching fellow at King’s College London and the author of several books on Israel, said that mathematically Eisenkot can form a government that “will have support in the Knesset, but for that he will have to work indirectly with religious and Arab parties which means giving up pre-election pledges”.
Yossi Mekelberg, a senior consulting fellow on the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, told The i Paper that the main obstacle to forming a coalition may actually come from within Eisenkot’s bloc itself, in the form of right-wing politician Avigdor Lieberman, who heads the Yisrael Beiteinu party.
Lieberman “thinks he should be prime minister but he won’t say it out loud because he only has [seven] seats”, Mekelberg added.
Bregman said that in an ideal world, Eisenkot invites the Arab parties to join his coalition but “such a move will be difficult for the average Israeli to swallow”.
Benjamin Netanyahu played up the support of Donald Trump during the election campaign (Photo: Chris McGrath/Getty Images)As a commander during the 2006 war with Hezbollah in Lebanon, Eisenkot came up with the so-called “Dahiya doctrine”, which advocates for the overwhelming use of force and destruction of civilian infrastructure in areas containing forces resisting the Israeli military.
If Eisenkot is forced to rely on the support, tacit or explicit, of the Arab parties it will likely be in exchange for measures taken to halt violence by Israeli settlers in the West Bank and efforts to halt violent crime within Palestinian communities in Israel, according to Mekelberg.
Eisenkot has described the attacks on Palestinians in the occupied West Bank as “Jewish terror” and has promised a crackdown on illegal settlements. However, he remains opposed to the creation of a Palestinian state, calling a two-state solution “delusional”.
As for Netanyahu, his future hangs in the balance. He is facing charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust in three different cases which emerged from investigations that began in 2016. One case involves the alleged receipt of more than $200,000 worth of luxury gifts, including cigars and champagne, in exchange for political favours. Netanyahu could face up to 10 years in prison if found guilty.
The trials, which are the first time an Israeli prime minister has been criminally charged while still in office, have led to speculation that Netanyahu’s aggression towards Gaza, Lebanon and Iran has been partly prompted by his desire to retain power and avoid spending time behind bars.
“Netanyahu thrives on the conflict with the international community because he needs to play the strongman in order to stay in power,” said Mekelberg, who added that losing power could make life difficult for Netanyahu because “he can’t manipulate the court, and for instance, not show up because there is an emergency”.
A banner calling for removal of Netanyahu as head of the government over a motorway in October 2025 (Photo: Martin Grimes/Getty Images)“A lot of the tricks that he’s doing right now would be very difficult if he doesn’t hold office.”
Netanyahu has formally asked Herzog for a pardon, which both Bregman and Mekelberg believe he may be given after he leaves office.
“I watched Netanyahu’s speech last night calling for a government of national unity, and I could feel his panic,” said Bregman. “I believe he will try to end his corruption trial by some agreement with the prosecution, or perhaps Herzog will intervene to end this saga.”
Since the election, Netanyahu has promoted claims that the Arab parties stole the election, without providing evidence, and has accused them of gaining seats through “votes bought for cash”.
Bregman said that while Netanyahu had previously attempted to deny the election results he was now moving towards calling for a government of national unity, which is “something he does only when the knife is very close to his throat”.
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