Three years ago, Luis Robert Jr. had just wrapped up quite the breakout season for the White Sox. After showing flashes of his five-tool potential from 2020-22, Robert proceeded to bat .264/.315/.542 with a 129 wRC+ in 145 games for the Pale Hose. He contributed 38 home runs, which still stands a career best, and he also added 20 stolen bases along with +12 Outs Above Average in center field. FanGraphs valued his total contributions at 5.0 wins above replacement.
Robert had signed a six-year, $55MM contract in January 2020, before he’d even debuted in the Majors. The 2023 breakout left the remaining $27.5MM in salary for 2024-25 looking like a bargain. Unfortunately, as is well-known by now, Robert would regress badly at the plate while dealing with significant injuries. A right hip flexor strain limited him to 100 games in 2024. A pair of IL stints for left hamstring strains kept him to 110 games in 2025.
When he was healthy, Robert failed to match the heights he’d set in 2023. In 856 plate appearances from 2024-25, he batted .223 while posting an OPS of just .660 and an 85 wRC+, making him 15% worse than the average hitter. Robert did manage to hit 28 home runs and steal 56 bases in that stretch, but his low contact and on-base percentages kept him from achieving his full potential on the field. The 2025 season brought some improvement in his strikeout and walk numbers, though he was still worth only 1.3 fWAR.
While it may have once been viewed as a bargain, Chicago instead faced a tricky decision of whether to pick up Robert’s $20MM club option for 2026. They ultimately picked it up, but they opted not to give Robert another go themselves, instead trading him to the Mets in January for Luisangel Acuña and minor league right-hander Truman Pauley. Robert once again missed significant time due to injury. A lumbar spine disc herniation kept him out for three months with the Mets, while left hamstring discomfort shelved him for three weeks with the Orioles, who took on roughly $5MM of Robert’s remaining salary in an August 31st waiver claim.
Robert only tallied 230 plate appearances between New York and Baltimore. He slashed just .221/.300/.407 in that sample, still hitting 11 home runs but only stealing two bases. On the plus side, Robert’s 23.9% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk rate were his best numbers in years (the latter was actually a career-best). His 89.8 mph average exit velocity was solidly above average, while his .186 isolated power was his best mark since the 2023 breakout. Robert’s overall production was still below league average, but his 97 wRC+ and .707 OPS were much more respectable than his 2024-25 production.
Of course, respectability is not enough to warrant a $20MM salary, especially for a player with Robert’s extensive injury history. The Orioles agreed, as they paid him a $2MM buyout rather than pick up that option for 2027. We at MLBTR have Robert at No. 43 on our Top 50 Free Agents list and project him for a one-year, $14MM deal. The Padres, Reds, and Royals are among the speculative destinations in his first trip through free agency.
Going back to the White Sox’ $20MM option decision for 2026, it’s the second straight offseason in which Robert will be viewed as an upside play. The question is how much longer he can get paid for that upside the further he gets from actually fulfilling his five-tool potential. His 145-game total from 2023 is still a career high, and in the time since, the hip flexor, hamstring, and back issues have kept Robert out of action for nearly half of his team’s games.
One point of comparison for talented, oft-injured center fielders is Byron Buxton. He and the Twins inked a seven-year, $100MM extension in November 2021. Buxton had posted wRC+ values of 112, 121, and 171 from 2019-21, playing in 187 out of 384 possible games (48.7%). His defensive grades had also remained stellar despite a myriad of injuries. Between that and his track record at the plate, the $100MM guarantee seemed more than fair even accounting for the likelihood of future injuries.
Since the start of 2022, Buxton has been worth 15.2 fWAR for the Twins. He’s earned a total of $71MM on the extension so far, including $69MM in salary, a $1MM signing bonus, and $1MM in incentives for exceeding 533 plate appearances last year. That amounts to $4.67MM per WAR, well below the going rate on the market. In contrast, Robert has earned a total of $49.5MM since the start of 2024 while putting up just 2.4 fWAR – a rate of $20.6MM per WAR.
The Robert vs. Buxton comparison is a useful exercise in valuing a five-tool player. Both have missed plenty of time, but Buxton has remained more or less an elite hitter when healthy. It’s now been three years since Robert could say the same, hence the question of how much longer he can get paid for upside over actual performance. Our $14MM projection for 2027 speaks to his tremendous upside, though it’s also a reflection of the weak free agent market for center fielders, as opposed to Robert’s bottom-line results.
Robert won’t turn 30 until August of next year, so he still has youth on his side. He’s no longer the elite fielder he was in 2023, but he was worth +7 OAA just last year. Further hamstring issues could potentially limit his range in the field, so they will be something to watch going forward. For what it’s worth, Statcast still saw Robert as an elite runner in 2026. His 28.9 feet/second sprint speed ranked in the 88th percentile.
Assuming he only gets a one-year deal for 2027, Robert may benefit from another weak center field class in the 2027-28 offseason. Steven Kwan currently projects as the top free agent there, and from a pure talent perspective, Robert has the edge over Harrison Bader, Kyle Isbel, and Matt Vierling. At the end of the day, though, 2027 may be Robert’s last chance to realize the potential he flashed in 2023. If injuries and underperformance befall him once again, he’ll be far less likely to score an eight-figure salary in 2028.
Photo courtesy of Gregory Fisher, Imagn Images
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