Welcome to Trump’s Lame-Duck Era ...Middle East

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It was a bewildering capstone to a strange campaign. Allies marveled at Trump’s inability to stay on message as he crisscrossed the country. He boasted that oil companies were making a fortune as Americans struggled with energy costs. He claimed New Yorkers were no longer allowed to call their mothers “mom,” suggested renaming New Mexico “New America,” and repeatedly mimicked a Democratic Senate candidate vomiting at the sight of meat. Time and again, he veered into bizarre digressions about men's physiques. As one Trump aide put: “It’s hard to reach voters who can’t afford gas when your candidate keeps talking about Arnold Palmer’s endowment and Jon Husted’s ass.”

Trump’s confidantes often remarked that he cared little about the outcome of the midterms. He regarded his party's loss of seats in Congress as an inescapable historical pattern. He had a point: Barack Obama's Democrats took a beating in consecutive midterms, and George W. Bush's Republicans were drubbed in 2006. Trump himself oversaw the loss of dozens of House seats in 2018. Advisers tried convincing the President that he had some agency over the election’s trajectory, but “he had trouble getting past the history,” one of Trump's top advisers says. He grew resigned to the gridlocked slugfest ahead and dismissive of the investigations and potential impeachment proceedings Democrats could embark upon. “They’ll probably go after me,” he told TIME in late September, “and I’ll go after them.”

President Trump holds up an image of the Reflecting Pool as he delivers remarks at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool on Nov. 2. —Finn Gomez—Getty Images

Presidents in the final two years of their second terms often pivot toward foreign policy, where they can exercise executive power with fewer constraints from Congress or the courts. Trump was already signaling his readiness to resume military strikes against Iran. Another senior Administration official says Trump plans to concentrate even more heavily on the Western Hemisphere in the final years of his presidency, where a succession of pro-Trump heads of state have risen to power and where he and his allies see an intensifying competition with China and Iran for regional influence. “It's such an opportunity to align,” says one senior Administration official. “There'll be an expanded focus there.” 

With the midterms ramping up in late September, Trump's aides thought he seemed more checked out than usual. He had yet to dip significantly into the $400 million war chest of his allied super PAC. Republicans were pleading with him to pour money into one particularly desperate contest: the fight to defend Ken Paxton in ruby-red Texas. Trump eventually authorized the two men he had tapped to oversee his outside political operation, Chris LaCivita and James Blair, to begin spending heavily to preserve Republicans' chances of maintaining control of the Senate and limit their losses in the House.

Trump tried to recreate a strategy from his 2024 campaign, seeking to reach low-propensity voters through nonpolitical channels and the alternative media platforms that Americans were increasingly consuming. Aides enlisted professional athletes and other celebrity validators who could lend local appeal at campaign stops. They brought Baltimore Ravens players to an event in Maryland and University of Georgia football legend Todd Gurley to a rally in the Peach State. They brought the boxer Jake Paul to another in Youngstown, Ohio. They brought Nicki Minaj, the best-selling female rapper of all time, onto the campaign trail in Michigan, where Trump praised her for having “one hell of a beautiful ass” that was “hard to miss.” Later, aides mischievously floated the prospect of Minaj serving as Trump’s next White House press secretary.

President Trump dances to music as he arrives for a campaign rally in Daytona Beach, Fla. on Oct. 30. —Andrew Harnik—Getty Images

The dismal performance of Republicans closely aligned with Trump, despite his personal interventions and nearly half a billion dollars in spending by Elon Musk, offered a stark measure of the backlash against his aAdministration. Voters were grappling with record-high gas prices, an unpopular war in the Middle East, and persistent economic hardship as the Administration faced scrutiny over its handling of the Epstein files and allegations that Trump and his allies had profited from their positions of power. The discontent extended beyond the cost of living. An October Fox News poll found that 60% of registered voters were extremely concerned about government corruption, surpassing even concerns about inflation and high prices.

Read more: Inside the Democrats' Plans to Take On Trump

President Trump speaks with reporters alongside Speaker of the House Mike Johnson and U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum after landing in Iowa on Nov. 1. —Andrew Harnik—Getty Images

Aides are bracing for a wave of staff turnover, a combination of attrition and Trump dispensing with officials who have frustrated him. The result could be a further retreat into an insular circle of loyalists who are unable or unwilling to deliver bad news or curb his impulses. Inside the White House, advisers have been contemplating the implications of divided government. “His natural inclination is to work with Democrats or Independents or whatever,” says another senior aide. “But he’s aware of the investigations and the games the other side will play, and he’s prepared to fight back.” Already, the Democratic wave had already emboldened the party’s leaders. The expected incoming chair of the House Oversight Committee delivered a succinct warning on X: “LAWYER UP.”

But the road ahead will be unlike any Trump has traveled before. Constitutionally barred from seeking another term, the President may find that Republicans face a new political calculus as they begin contemplating a post-Trump future. As the 2028 presidential race takes shape, Vice President J.D. Vance will confront the delicate task of forging an identity independent of Trump without alienating the man whose endorsement he may still need. Those tensions could strain not only their relationship but the broader coalition Trump has spent a decade assembling—one already showing signs of fracture as once-loyal allies like Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Greene have turned against him. The question is whether the fear and loyalty that have sustained Trump's dominance of the GOP will endure as his party begins looking beyond him.

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