The Rays’ biggest question this offseason is whether to trade ace Drew Rasmussen. Tampa Bay had an easy call to exercise his $20MM option after what’ll almost certainly be the righty’s second straight top 10 finish in Cy Young balloting. That doesn’t preclude the possibility of a trade, as Rasmussen is set to make the largest salary for any player in team history.
Trading Rasmussen as he enters his final year under contract would be a typical Rays move. Tampa Bay’s run to the third AL title in club history may point to them operating differently in this case. President of baseball operations Erik Neander told reporters on Tuesday that the team’s early-offseason plan is keep Rasmussen as their #1 starter for 2027 (link via Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times).
“(It’s) not a declarative this, that, whatever, but I can sit here very confidently and say that every intention right now is thinking about ‘Ras’ anchoring our rotation and how to make this team better going into next year,” Neander said. At a different point in the media scrum, he said the team “(wants) to have ‘Ras” back. We’re going into this offseason when you were that close to where we were, it’s hard to think we’ll be closer if ‘Ras’ isn’t part of the team.”
Although Neander didn’t speak entirely in absolutes, it’s a relatively forceful pushback against trade speculation. MLBTR placed Rasmussen #2 among our top offseason trade candidates last week, noting the high demand the Rays would receive and the organizational history of trading players in this spot. Neander differentiated Rasmussen’s situation from that of Tyler Glasnow, whom the Rays traded to the Dodgers over the 2023-24 offseason when he was set to make $25MM in his final year under contract.
The Rays were coming off a 99-win season and had signed Glasnow to an extension just 15 months earlier. However, they lost Shane McClanahan (then arguably their best pitcher) to elbow surgery late in that season. Wander Franco, expected to be their franchise shortstop, was placed on administrative leave that August after allegations first emerged about what would eventually lead to his conviction for sexual abuse of a minor in the Dominican Republic.
Neander suggested those late-season developments led to a change in their competitive outlook for ’24 that made a Glasnow trade sensible. The Rays would miss the playoffs for the next two seasons before returning to the top of the American League this year.
Rasmussen has stayed healthy in consecutive seasons and cemented himself among the top 10-15 pitchers in the sport. He’s entering his age-31 campaign and would be lined up for a massive average annual value after ’27 if he manages a third straight injury-free season. The Rays probably wouldn’t extend him but should receive some kind of compensation if he walks as a free agent — either via the current qualifying offer system or some other implementation in the next collective bargaining agreement. A midseason trade would also be a possibility if they fall out of contention in the game’s toughest division.
If the Rays indeed hold Rasmussen into next season, he’s the obvious choice for a second straight Opening Day start. Their rotation beyond that includes McClanahan, Griffin Jax and Ryan Pepiot. Lefty Ian Seymour leads their in-house fifth starter possibilities, which could also include Steven Matz, Mason Englert, or prospects Brody Hopkins and Ty Johnson. The Rays haven’t been shy about stretching out relievers into starting roles, so perhaps they’d consider building Tyler Wells back up after he moved to the bullpen for the ’26 season.
It’s an alright 1-5 on paper but comes with enough durability questions that the Rays need external help. McClanahan hasn’t reached 120 innings in a season since 2022 and missed the playoff run due to forearm tightness. Pepiot missed all of this year due to right hip surgery. Neander said both pitchers will have a normal offseason and are expected to be fully healthy for Spring Training.
Seymour and Jax both moved to the rotation midseason. Neither pitcher has had a full year as an MLB starter, and Seymour had a tough postseason. Rasmussen, McClanahan and Jax are all one year away from free agency as well, so some kind of controllable starting pitching is necessary. While Tampa Bay has a solid farm system, most of the names at the top are on the position player side. Johnson and Hopkins are the best upper minors reinforcements and each might be better suited for the bullpen.
The Rays saw Freddy Peralta and Nick Martinez hit free agency at the end of the season. Peralta almost certainly will price himself out. Martinez probably will as well, though the Rays could keep in touch considering he’ll be limited to one or two years given his age.
Tampa Bay finished the 2026 season with a player payroll around $98.4MM, as shown on MLBTR’s Payroll Tracker (courtesy of contributor Ethan Hullihen). They’re already projected for $105MM for next season, though they only have four players — Rasmussen, Yandy Diaz, Taylor Walls and Matz — on guaranteed contracts.
A lot of their obligations come from a 15-player arbitration class which MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects to cost around $46.2MM. They could trim $7-10MM off their projected payroll by non-tendering or trading some combination of Garrett Cleavinger, Cole Sulser, Richie Palacios, Edwin Uceta and Jesse Scholtens. In addition to the need for at least one starter, the Rays figure to invest in a middle reliever or two and could upgrade the middle infield and/or center field.
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