Even if the Cubs weren’t losing a half-dozen starting pitchers to free agency (or declined club options), their needs in the rotation would trump anything the organization is facing this winter. The various injuries, underperformance, and question marks throughout the 2026 season saw to that. However, their immediate needs in the outfield are nearly as acute.
Ian Happ (24 HRs, 2.6 fWAR, Gold Glove nominee) and Seiya Suzuki (26 HRs, 4.5 fWAR, Gold Glove nominee) are the big losses, as both are set to hit free agency after manning starting roles all year. But losing them alongside fellow free agent outfielders Michael Conforto and Tyrone Taylor is simply too much to withstand all at once … at least, not without reasonable external replacements.
Sure, the Cubs might project a willingness to expand the roles of Matt Shaw and Pedro Ramirez in 2027, but I don’t think anyone actually believes they’ll both be the starting corner outfielders on Opening Day. That leaves way too much up to chance, to say nothing of the downstream impact on the bench.
No, one way or another, the Cubs need to add a starting-caliber outfielder this offseason. And if it’s going to come through free agency, then re-signing their own guy, Seiya Suzuki, is the highest-ceiling way to go.
Remember, Suzuki just had an incredible walk year in 2026 — in fact, it was perhaps his most well-rounded overall performance since coming over to MLB. Offensively, he slashed a balanced .270/.368/.473 (134 wRC+) with 26 HRs, 96 runs scored, and 86 RBI. Defensively, he completely transformed himself in right field, enough to earn a Gold Glove nomination for his efforts.
Throw it all into the computer, press a couple of keys, and you get a career-best 4.5 fWAR, which was among the top 20 in MLB among all position players last season. Filter that down to only outfielders, and Suzuki’s 4.5 fWAR was fifth-best behind only teammate Pete Crow-Armstrong (10.6 fWAR), fellow free agent Randy Arozarena (5.5 fWAR), Fernando Tatis Jr. (5.4 fWAR), and Jackson Chourio (4.6 fWAR).
Not bad company. A very good season.
With all of that in mind, Suzuki is widely considered the best (or perhaps second-best) free agent position player available this winter. And that has generally led us to believe that his next contract will exceed what the Cubs will be willing to spend given their even more significant needs across the pitching staff.
Except … maybe not?
At FanGraphs, Ben Clemens turned in his annual top-50 free agent rankings with contractual projections from himself and the field. And if these numbers wind up being an accurate representation of his market, the Cubs would be absolutely insane not to snatch Suzuki up immediately.
Cubs Outfielder Seiya Suzuki | © David Banks-Imagn ImagesSeiya Suzuki Free Agent Projection
Suzuki, 32, ranks as the second-best overall free agent according to FanGraphs, behind only Tarik Skubal, who’ll get something like $350 million this winter (hopefully from the Cubs…). And yet, this is all Suzuki is projected to earn:
Ben Clemens: 4 years, $108 million Median Crowdsource: 4 years, $96 million Avg. Crowdsource: 3.79 years, $89.8 millionI’ll plant my flag right now: if it takes only four years and less than $120 million guaranteed to land Seiya Suzuki this offseason, I’ll be moderately shocked. Not only did he have a great walk year, but he’s also by FAR the best bat available. That scarcity alone should drive up the price tag, and there are already teams circling.
To put that another way, I suspect Suzuki will be pushing hard for another five-year deal with an AAV around $25 million. And if the length isn’t there, then I suspect he’ll accept a four-year offer … if the team gets closer to $30 million in average annual value.
And even though Clemens came up a little shy of where I’d expect, he still thinks Suzuki is set to earn big:
Mind the gap! I think Suzuki will get 75% less guaranteed money than Skubal, but he’s the best hitter available this winter, and his career year — 4.5 WAR, 26 homers, Gold Glove finalist recognition — couldn’t have come at a better time. If Suzuki can play plus defense at a corner outfield spot and stay healthy – his last two seasons are his two healthiest – he’s an All-Star for at least the next few years. And there’s no question at all about his bat; he’s played five seasons in the majors, and his worst wRC+ was 118.
Teams have mostly gotten out of the business of giving long-term contracts to hitters over 30, but when they do, it’s for bat-first types who have few holes in their game, and that describes Suzuki perfectly. He checks the three boxes of good eye, good contact, and good power, which gives him room to have a down year in one area and still be viable. I think that the uncertainty around the economic structure of the game will keep him from getting five-plus years, but that shouldn’t stop him from getting the second-biggest AAV in the class….
For teams that want a genuine, reliable middle-of-the-order bat, it’s Suzuki or bust….This being one of the most seller-friendly markets in baseball history for free agent offense, whoever lands Suzuki will probably end up overpaying, and the last couple years of his contract will probably be hairy.
***
Now, while I do believe Seiya Suzuki is probably the Cubs’ most direct path to maintaining a high offensive ceiling in 2027, he’s not literally the only option. Teruaki Sato is coming over from Japan. Randy Arozarena, another free agent, just had a big year overall. Ditto Jake Bauers (mostly 1B, but played some outfield). And there’s always the trade market, where who knows who is available (Steven Kwan? Fernando Tatis Jr.?). And so on.
The Top-17 Cubs Trade Targets for 2027
Likewise, I don’t think I’d be upset if the Cubs didn’t sign Seiya Suzuki because they otherwise spent a fortune on Skubal. Do that, and you can go cheap elsewhere without too much consternation.
But there’s another factor here we haven’t really discussed, and that’s DH.
Until Brett and I discussed it on the latest episode of the Bleacher Nation Cubs Podcast, I didn’t really internalize how big of a hole the Cubs have at DH next season and beyond. To illustrate that point, look at who took the most DH plate appearances this past season:
Michael Conforto: 155 PAs (free agent) Moises Ballesteros: 145 PAs (traded to the Angels) Seiya Suzuki: 138 PAs (free agent) Alex Bregman: 60 PAs Pedro Ramirez: 39 PAs Ian Happ: 22 PAs (free agent) PCA: 20 PAs Carson Kelly: 17 PAs (free agent)Owen Caissie was perhaps another long-term DH option, but he too was traded. So …?
My point here is that the double vacancy at Suzuki’s two primary positions (both short- and long-term) works in favor of a Cubs reunion this offseason. The Japanese slugger could naturally devolve into an everyday DH as the waning years of his coming contract approach (even if that’s not the plan/hope for 2027 and 2028).
Now, I will reiterate, I do not think it’s exactly Suzuki or bust for the Cubs. There are always other options out there. And, again, I would be okay going cheap in the outfield if it meant bringing in legitimate impact starting pitchers. Like, the very expensive ones. But short of that, or if these projections are correct, the Cubs would be wrong not to do everything in their power to keep Suzuki in Chicago a little bit longer.
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