It’s the most expensive election cycle in U.S. history in terms of political ad spending, with more than $11 billion expected to be spent, according to analysis firm AdImpact. States have redrawn congressional maps between censuses at a rate the National Conference of State Legislatures says has not been seen since the 1800s, as parties try to secure victories. And Donald Trump has an historically low approval rating for a President heading into the midterms.
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Here’s who to watch out for.
But no Black person has served as Speaker of the House. That could change if an anticipated blue wave in November gives Democrats the majority. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has broad support in the New York congressional district he represents and is on track for re-election in a race against Republican opponent Lewis Mizrahi that is widely considered uncompetitive. Jeffries, who served in Congress for nearly 14 years, was elected unopposed in 2022 as House Democratic Leader, succeeding Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi and making him the first Black leader of a major political party in Congress. But the path to the speakership isn’t guaranteed, as the center-left Jeffries may have to unite an ideologically fractious Democratic caucus.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D, N.Y.) speaks to media in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 30, 2026. —Finn Gomez—Getty ImagesFirst Muslim Senator?
El-Sayed has run on a progressive platform, including advocating for Medicare for All and ending U.S. military funding to Israel, which has ruffled some moderate and Jewish Democrats. His identity has also become a campaign target for Republicans: Rogers and Donald Trump have tried to link El-Sayed and his family to the transnational extremist group Muslim Brotherhood, and El-Sayed has been pressured to reaffirm his commitment to the Constitution over his faith, which defenders have said reflects the Islamophobia he faces.
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Pappas is running against Republican nominee John E. Sununu, a former U.S. Senator seeking to reclaim his seat from retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. Pappas leads in public opinion polling. While Republicans have largely not made Pappas’ sexuality a focus of their political campaigns, the GOP has alleged that Pappas failed to disclose a relationship with a corporate lobbyist.
First Korean-American governor?
Oklahoma Democratic gubernatorial nominee Cyndi Munson speaks at a campaign rally on Oct. 26, 2026. —Nick Oxford—ReutersRead More: The 7 Key Governor Races to Watch in the Midterm Elections
If Bottoms wins, she would not only become the state’s first Black and first female governor; she could also become one of the U.S.’s first Black female governors, an honor she might share with Minnesota gubernatorial candidate Lisa Demuth. Bottoms told ABC News in October that the potential milestone is “much more personal” for her. “My family goes back at least five generations in Georgia,” she said. “I’m a descendant of slaves on both sides.” Stacey Abrams, the former minority leader of Georgia’s state House, previously tried to become the first Black female governor, but fell short in the 2018 and 2022 elections.
Minnesota GOP gubernatorial nominee Rep. Lisa Demuth speaks to supporters during a campaign stop in Hastings on Oct. 31, 2026. —Aaron Lavinsky—The Minnesota Star Tribune/Getty Images
In Minnesota, whoever wins the race for governor will break the state’s glass ceiling, as no woman has ever been elected to lead the state. Senator Amy Klobuchar is the Democratic nominee, while Republicans nominated Demuth, a state representative since 2018 and speaker of the state House since 2025.
First Native American female governors?
New Mexico Democratic gubernatorial nominee Deb Haaland waves to attendees during a primary election night watch party in Albuquerque on June 2, 2026. —Jon Austria—APIn 2018, Deb Haaland made history as one of the first Native American women, alongside Sharice Davids, to be elected to Congress. Haaland is a member of the Laguna Pueblo, a federally recognized tribe in New Mexico that has existed longer than the U.S. has. As a congresswoman, she focused on environmental justice, climate change, and missing and murdered indigenous women. In 2021, Haaland became the Biden Administration’s Interior Secretary. Haaland is now running to become governor of New Mexico, and she could potentially make history again, this time as one of the first Native American women to lead any state.
In Alaska, Bernadette Wilson, who is of Aleut heritage, is a Republican candidate for governor. Wilson, a conservative activist and former radio host, has the backing of President Trump, but veteran Sen. Lisa Murkowski, a moderate Alaska Republican, and her father, former Gov. Frank Murkowski, both endorsed Wilson’s Democratic opponent, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, whom Wilson trails in the polls. Forecasters, however, rate the race as a toss-up.
First Native American female Senators?
Left: Alaska Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Mary Peltola. Right: Minnesota Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Peggy Flanagan. —Mark Thiessen—AP Photo; Stephen Maturen/Getty Images
When Yup'ik Alaska Native Mary Peltola was first elected to the U.S. House in an August 2022 special election to replace the late Representative Don Young, she became the first Alaska Native member of Congress and the first woman to represent Alaska in the chamber. If she beats incumbent Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan—and polls show her slightly leading—she could become the first Alaska Native Senator as well as one of the first Native American women in the Senate.
In Minnesota, Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is running for the Senate and could also become one of the first Native American women in the chamber. That is, if Flanagan—a member of the White Earth Band of Ojibwe, the largest federally recognized tribe in Minnesota—beats GOP nominee and political newcomer Michele Tafoya. Polls show Flanagan leading.
“I’m not running to make history, but it’s about damn time there was a Native American woman serving in the United States Senate,” Flanagan said on the campaign trail in October. “And she might as well be from White Earth.”
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