So bad was the final-day implosion by Pat Cummins’ team in Cape Town, even Australian bookmakers are now making England favourites to win next summer’s Ashes.
With that comes pressure; as delicious as it was watching Australia fall to a defeat by South Africa that knocked them off the top of the world Test rankings, Joe Root’s England now know that nothing other than victory next summer will do.
Before then, Australia have 10 Tests to play, the final one of those a one-off 150th anniversary match against England in Melbourne in March.
Yet by that time, just what kind of shape will the Aussies be in?
At the moment, they are dealing with a reckoning of their own making – an ageing team that has fallen victim to a lack of succession planning is being ripped apart by pundits and former players following the 2-1 series loss in South Africa.
Simon Harmer starred for South Africa by taking six wickets to destroy any Australian hopes of a comeback pic.twitter.com/nic5l9VEE4
— Sky Sports Cricket (@SkyCricket) October 31, 2026Even Cummins admitted changes are likely for the four-Test series against New Zealand that starts later this month. After that, five Tests in India await.
The schedule is brutal, as has been the reaction to a performance that saw Australia routed for 111 on the final day at Newlands chasing 288.
Former opener David Warner called the batting display “terrible”. “un-Australian” and “disgraceful”.
Another former player, Mark Waugh, said of the Aussies’ shaky batting line-up: “It’s been papered over by the bowlers for the last 12-15 months.
“They have got out of jail a lot, and through individual batting whether it’s Travis Head, Steve Smith or Alex Carey, but as a batting unit, we haven’t batted well for, I’d say, two years.”
Travis Head is one of the few Aussies who could get into England’s best XI (Photo: Getty)That was no more evident than during last winter’s Ashes, when an England team who failed to prepare properly squandered their best chance to win Down Under for 15 years.
Next summer, there can be no excuses. England aren’t exactly in great shape themselves having lost captain Ben Stokes to retirement last summer after a turbulent and shambolic home series defeat by New Zealand.
Ending the summer with a 3-0 series win against a terrible Pakistan team stabilised things at the start of Root’s second spell as captain. Their own three-Test series in South Africa that starts next month, the first assignment for new coach Stephen Fleming, will tell us exactly where they are as a team.
Yet home advantage next summer and the chaos currently engulfing Australia – with the coming months having the potential to add yet more – means the timing for a first England Ashes win since 2015 could not be better.
By the time the first Test starts at Trent Bridge on 18 June, we are likely to see a very different Australia team.
The problem is, the talent coming through – if we’re basing it on the likes of Cooper Connolly and Beau Webster – is a significant downgrade on what Australia currently have.
Marnus Labuschagne has surely played his last Test for the Baggy Greens (Photo: Getty)Of those in danger of being dropped, Marnus Labuschagne, the No 3 batter who has failed to score a century since the 2023 Ashes, is top of the list.
Nathan Lyon, who turns 39 next month, also looks done, with the spinner who took 4 for 172 at Newlands completely outshone by opposite number Simon Harmer, who took a 10-wicket match haul.
As for the rest of the bowling attack, they are still a formidable unit but they are ageing fast. Cummins, the youngest of the so-called “pace cartel”, will be 34 by the time the Ashes start. Josh Hazlewoood will be 36, Mitchell Starc 37 and Scott Boland 38.
Of the top seven, it says everything that Australia’s best batter in South Africa, Middlesbrough-born Matt Renshaw, is English. Had his family not moved to the other side of the world when he was a kid, would Renshaw even get in England’s current team?
When looking ahead to next summer, it’s probably worth extrapolating that question out to the entire XI that failed in Cape Town.
How many currently get in England’s best team? You’d probably say three – Head, Cummins and Starc.
It might be close between, say, Carey – who often saves his best for England – and Jamie Smith, but I’d take 26-year-old Smith over 35-year-old Carey.
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Comment: Jimmy Anderson deserved better than this Exclusive: Ben Stokes open to Ashes SOS call – on two conditionsHazlewood is still an excellent bowler, but would you put him in a combined XI ahead of Jofra Archer? I certainly wouldn’t.
This is not to say Cummins’ men can’t win in England next summer. South Africa had to dig deep to come back from 1-0 down in this series and it’d be foolish to write off any Australian team.
Yet as we sit here now, England know deep down next summer represents their best chance to beat the old enemy in more than a decade. They have to take it.
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