Russia has once again been hit behind enemy lines after a huge Ukrainian drone and missile operation struck a major fuel production facility in the early hours of Saturday morning.
The Kamensky chemical plant in Russia’s deep south Rostov region was hit, according to the general staff of the armed forces of Ukraine on Telegram.
The facility produces solid rocket propellant which is essential for several Russian weapons used in the ongoing assault on Ukraine.
Overnight, Ukraine also targeted other energy facilities, including the Bashneft refineries in Ufa, which set one of the complex’s reforming units on fire, according to Bloomberg.
What is the impact of Saturday’s attacks?
A complex system of drones and navy Neptune missiles was launched against Kamensky, the Ukrainian military said.
It suggested the facility produced “solid rocket fuel for the Uragan, Smerch, and Tornado-S MLRS ammunition, as well as for a number of missile systems and aircraft weapons”.
The stated aim of the strike was to “reduce the ability of the Russian army to shell Ukrainian settlements with multiple launch rocket systems”.
Ukrainian general staff also said it had hit four army warehouses in the Donetsk region in synchronised strikes overnight.
Taken together with the hit on Bashneft, it makes it clear that Ukraine is now continue to target Russian energy production facilities despite warnings from Washington.
Prospect of fuel shortages in Russia
Scott Lucas, professor of international politics at University College Dublin, said the strikes will put pressure on Russian energy capacity which could affect its war effort.
“The effect of that, of course, is going to be to put a squeeze back on the Russians in terms of their capacity, both for their domestic market and also for support of the invasion,” he said.
Professor Lucas added the blow comes just days after Russia reopened the flow of fuel to regions where there had been “severe shortages” earlier in the year.
He said: “Just earlier this week, the Russians had lifted restrictions on fuel sales in 15 regions, including Crimea, the occupied area where they had severe shortages this summer.
“So there was some easing of the fuel situation, which accompanied Trump’s announcement that he was going to purchase fuel from Russia.”
In fact, renewed Ukrainian attacks over the past few weeks have contributed to a waning Russian economy, Professor Lucas said.
“Overall, we’re back to highlight the fact that Russia has severe constraints in terms of its economic situation, which are accentuated by the Ukrainian counterattacks,” he added.
What this means for the US’s diesel deal
Earlier this month, Donald Trump agreed a deal with Vladimir Putin that will allow Russia to “immediately release” diesel into the US and global markets.
The move led to accusations the Trump is now helping to fund Putin’s war against Ukraine. Volodymyr Zelensky later attacked the US over the deal describing it as a “weak decision”.
The US Department of the Treasury issued a temporary license to enable Russian diesel to flow to global markets through April 2027.
This allows Russia to deliver the more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel Trump said would be delivered immediately, as well as the further 500,000 tonnes to come in November.
But on Saturday, Russia announced it would extend its export ban on diesel through to the end of January 2027, indicating it is worried about domestic supply.
But Professor Lucas pointed out that one of the exceptions to this rule would be “any diesel that they could send across to the US as they continue to try to get Trump to support them to ally with them, in effect, in the invasion against Ukraine”.
Time will tell, he said, what the future attitude of the Trump administration will be, given widespread rifts in his government about the approach to Ukraine and the implication of siding with Russia over diesel, especially as the midterms approach next week.
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