Democrats are already preparing for a range of scenarios along these lines. And while this GOP gambit is very unlikely to succeed, it could get awfully nasty.
“If we conclude that there were things that should not have happened, that are illegal, we will act on that,” Dunleavy said. “That may in fact impact whether somebody is seated in the U.S. Senate.”
How bad was this plot? In my view, it’s scummy and anti-democratic conduct. But it’s routine as ratfucking goes. Indeed, Democrats quickly cited numerous examples of Republicans engaged in lots of similar chicanery. Let’s get real: we live in a world where Trump ordered multiple GOP state legislatures to execute extreme gerrymanders for the explicitly declared purpose of holding the House, where Trump has called on congressional Republicans to seize control of state-administered elections, and where Trump still won’t commit to accepting a midterm defeat.
All that aside, the second “Dan Sullivan” says his decision to run was his own, and state courts (in a separate lawsuit) have already upheld his right to do so. Yet Trump’s Justice Department is already suing to force Alaska not to certify the results, insisting the second “Dan Sullivan” will invalidate any outcome (other than a GOP victory, of course).
We are going to investigate. We are going to follow the law. And if we conclude there were things that should not have happened—that are illegal—we will act on that. And that may in fact impact whether somebody is seated in the U.S. Senate.
According to election law expert Rick Pildes, the governor and lieutenant governor transmit a certified election result to the U.S. Senate. Notably, the latter is Republican Nancy Dahlstrom, who previously disqualified the second Dan Sullivan from running (the state courts overturned this). She’s also openly aligned with MAGA. So we know where her loyalties lie.
“Whatever the governor may feel, it is his legal obligation to sign the paperwork to go to the U.S. Senate,” Elias tells me. “If he doesn’t, he will be sued. And he’ll have to sign it anyway.”
A key nuance: Note that Dunleavy says he might refuse to send certification only if the state investigation of the ballot-packing finds criminality (which is not impossible but highly unlikely). But even if it did, that still wouldn’t justify non-certification, Pildes says, and the courts would overturn it.
Could the Senate refuse to seat Peltola? Theoretically, the Senate could vote to postpone her swearing-in regardless of the certification sent by Alaska, says election law expert Rick Hasen. Then a complicated internal process would kick in, and much would turn on which party controlled the Senate and its Rules Committee at that point. “It would likely be resolved,” Hasen says, “but it could get ugly.”
So even if Trump’s federal lawsuit pressuring Alaska won’t work, it’s actually designed to feed the mere impression that the results are tainted. He will then exploit public confusion—created by him—to loudly demand that the Alaska governor refrain from certification. He will insist—again, relying on confusion he helped create—that Senate Republicans sabotage Peltola’s seating.
It’s all very unlikely to succeed. But if you don’t think Trump will do everything in his power to delay the inevitable for as long as possible—and if you don’t think this could get extremely vicious or even violent—then you haven’t been paying attention.
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