Winter is coming, and it’s expected to be very different from last year’s.
While the 2025-2026 winter was defined by unusually frigid temperatures in the northeast and oddly warm weather in the southwest, forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predict a winter that’s warmer than usual pretty much everywhere in the continental United States.
The key difference is that last winter took place in a weak La Niña weather event, where sea surface water temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean were colder than average and caused ripple effects throughout the globe. This year we’re in a strong El Niño event: Pacific Ocean temperatures are significantly higher than usual, and the effects will be felt from thousands of miles away.
Expect Wet Conditions in the South
“As we know from decades of observations, a very strong El Niño will likely bring a southward and eastward shift to the jet stream for the contiguous U.S., which tilts the odds toward stormier weather across the South,” Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, said in an October 15 statement.
“While higher chances of rain and snow may bring relief to drought-afflicted areas, too much precipitation on dry soil can fuel destructive flash floods and mudslides,” Graham said.
The 2026-2027 U.S. Winter Outlook map for precipitation. Credit: NOAAThe increased precipitation has already been felt throughout the southwest; on Thursday, New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham signed 57 emergency executive orders to assist with recovery from floods that devastated communities in the northern part of her state.
Likewise, Florida has been dealing with record coastal flooding: this past week the Florida Keys have seen their highest non-tropical water levels since 1913.
Expect Warmer, Drier Weather in Much of the North
Forecasters predict a warmer and drier winter in the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes regions.
“Typically during El Niño years we see warmer temperatures than normal across the Pacific Northwest, and lower precipitation than normal, particularly west of the Cascades,” explained research scientist Karin Bumbaco. “Often, because of the warmer-than-normal temperatures, we see reduced snowpack in the mountains even if there is normal precipitation, because more of it falls as rain rather than snow.”
Likewise, Midwestern states generally tend to be warmer in El Niño years. During the major El Niño winter in 2015-2016, for instance, Chicago’s average temperature was over four degrees above normal.
Perhaps the most unpredictable section of the country is the northeast. Much of the northeast is expected to be warmer than usual but also wetter than usual; forecasters expect a lot of precipitation, largely (but not entirely) in the form of rain.
There Likely Won’t Be Much Snow, But Superstorms are Still Possible
Unfortunately for snow-lovers out there, this is likely to be a rainy winter nationwide. However, just because the overall trend might be rainy doesn’t mean a good blizzard can’t occur. The difference between rain and snow is often just a few degrees. And after all, the unusually warm 2015-2016 winter still featured that massive January storm that dropped over 25 inches of snow on Baltimore alone.
“El Niño can favor a more mild than average winter in the northern United States, but listen, in the winter months it doesn’t mean you won’t have snow,” NOAA’s director warned Americans. “It doesn’t erase the risk.”
Snow or no snow, the general trend seems clear: winter in the northern U.S. should be a little easier to bear for most residents. Last winter was so consistently frigid that ferry service in New York City had to shut down due to icy conditions for the first time since 2017; this upcoming winter will bring plenty of problems, but historic iciness shouldn’t (fingers crossed) be one of them.
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