Republicans currently control both chambers, with 53 seats in the 100-seat Senate and 218 seats in the 435-seat House.
Democrats are widely expected to gain enough House seats to take control of that chamber. The Senate remains a toss up amid several tightly contested races, many in red states Trump won in 2024. Between campaigns, super PACs and billionaire donors, hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent on a handful of races.
Here are the Senate and House races to watch ahead of election day on Nov. 3.
Polling has indicated that Sullivan and Peltola are neck-in-neck, with Peltola occasionally gaining a slim lead. While Trump won Alaska in 2024 by 13 points, the race appears to be close enough that he travelled to Wasilla on Oct. 13 to campaign on Sullivan’s behalf.
Read more: The 7 Key Governor Races to Watch
Iowa Senate
This is another state that Trump won by 13 points in 2024. Yet the recent polling suggests a true toss-up. Hinson, who has represented Iowa in the House since 2021, has distanced herself from Trump, calling for an “immediate end” to the Iran war. Trump campaigned alongside Hinson last week.
Michigan’s open Senate rate has emerged as perhaps the most hostile of the midterms. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, a physician and former public health director, has the chance to be the country’s first Muslim senator. He’s facing off against Mike Rogers, a former FBI agent who served in the House before losing a 2024 Senate bid. Both are vying to replace Sen. Gary Peters, the Democrat who has held the seat since 2015.
El-Sayed won his party’s nomination after a fierce primary against Rep. Haley Stevens, in which his criticism of Israel’s war in Gaza became a lightning rod issue. Since the primaries, prominent Democrats including Barack Obama, Kamala Harris, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York have all come to Michigan to stump alongside him.
Recent polls have shown El-Sayed leading Rogers, but usually within the margin of error.
From left, Abdul El-Sayed, former President Barack Obama and Jocelyn Benson, Michigan's secretary of state and candidate for governor, raise their hands in unison during a rally for Democrats on Oct. 24, 2026. in Detroit. —Nic Antaya—The Washington Post via Getty ImagesMaine Senate
Main is the only state Trump did not win in the 2024 election where an incumbent Republican is up for reelection. Collins has distanced herself from Trump across many policy issues and on the campaign trail. She voted to convict Trump following his impeachment after the January 6 riots on the Capitol. Yet she’s also drawn criticism for backing Trump’s previous picks for the Supreme Court, despite her longstanding support for Roe v. Wade, which the Court later overturned.Collins is chair of the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee and frequently boasts on the campaign trial of federal dollars she helped steer to the state. Recent polls show Jackson barely leading Collins, in a race that is widely viewed as a toss-up.
Former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown faces off against Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed by Republican Gov. Mike DeWine to replace Vance when he went to the White House in 2025.
Read More: Ohio May Be the Sleeper Senate Race of the Midterms
Kansas Senate
Kansas has not elected a Democratic Senator since 1932. But that could all change if Adam Hamilton, who founded the largest Methodist congregation in the U.S., beats out the incumbent, Republican Roger Marshall.
Read More: Kansas Has Emerged as a Senate Battleground State. Here’s Why It Matters
Sen. Roger Marshall, Kansas Republicans, makes a heart gesture at a campaign rally with Trump on Oct. 19, 2026, in Park City, Kansas. —Kent NISHIMURA—AFP via Getty Images
In perhaps the most closely-watched race of the midterms, James Talarico has a chance to become the first Democratic Senator in Texas since 1993. He faces off against Republican nominee Attorney General Ken Paxton, who defeated the incumbent, Sen. John Cornyn, in a Republican runoff in May.
Talarico has had a slight edge in recent polling, but the race remains extremely tight, and one poll from last week had them tied.
New Hampshire Senate
A tight contest for Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s seat is taking place in New Hampshire, where four-term Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas is running against former Sen. John Sununu, who was beat out by Shaheen in 2008.
Read more: Why Republicans Still Think They Can Flip New Hampshire's Senate Seat
Rep. Chris Pappas, a New Hampshire Democrat running for Senate, is joined by former Vice President Kamala Harris, on Oct 24, 2026, at a campaign field office in Portsmouth, N.H. —John Tully—Getty Images)
In one of the most expensive House races in the country, Republican Rep. Tom Barrett is facing off against progressive William Lawrence, a climate organizer who founded the climate advocacy organization the Sunrise Movement.
Texas-15
Deep in South Texas, Trump marked impressive gains with Hispanic voters in 2024. Now, Texas’ 15th district has emerged as a major test of whether Republicans can hold on to those voters. Roughly 75% of eligible voters in this House district are Hispanic.
Some recent polls show Pulido in the lead, though election results in that region have at times defied expectations. Cook’s Political Report continues to rate the race as a toss-up.
Ohio-07
The House race has received outsized attention over domestic abuse allegations against Miller, which he has denied. Republican Sen. Bernie Moreno, who is Miller’s former father-in-law, said over the summer that Miller should “seek professional help.” Moreno was joined by Ohio’s other Senator, Republican John Husted, in publicly urging Miller to exit the race in a district that has traditionally voted Republican and which Trump carried in 2024 by 11 points. Cook’s Political Report rates the race a toss-up.
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