Transcript: Trump-Ramaswamy Ad Fiasco Backfired, Leaked GOP Poll Shows ...Middle East

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Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.

We’re talking about all of it with New Republic senior editor Alex Shephard, who has a good piece on the Ohio fiasco. Great to have you on, Alex.

Sargent: So, a quick recap. In Ohio, GOP gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy started running an ad featuring Democrat Amy Acton’s mother claiming she lied about her difficult childhood, but then we learned that her stepfather, i.e., her mother’s husband, allegedly raped her. Nonetheless, Trump defended the ad here:

And here:

Sargent: Alex, what’s interesting is that once Trump said these things, the command went out to all of MAGA that they had to get behind the ad, and the die was cast, right?

And I think this was a very deliberate and despicable effort on behalf of the Ramaswamy campaign, as I wrote last week, to try to engender a kind of Trumpiness to their campaign.

Sargent: Well, Axios reports that internal GOP polling finds that due to the ad, Acton is actually leading by more than before over Ramaswamy. A memo leaked with the poll says that the ad is having a, quote-unquote, significant effect on the race.

This thing really broke through to low-information voters in a way that a lot of things don’t. And the result was that it told Amy Acton’s story sympathetically. Talk about poetic justice, Alex.

And I think with this ad, it seemed clear that this ad was meant to get to low-information voters before Acton could, essentially, because it’s such a powerful story that they wanted to essentially try to poison the well. And instead, what you’re seeing is the exact opposite.

And I’ve been talking to people in Ohio, and I’ve been reading about people in Ohio, who essentially described almost like a phone tree or something in communities, where people were just immediately texting and calling each other and telling them the truth about this.

And so the fact that this is the sort of thing that people would just text to all their friends and talk about—and I’m sure there have just been thousands and thousands and thousands, if not millions, of conversations in Ohio about this ad, and about, as a result, Amy Acton’s childhood, right?

Shephard: Well, yeah, and I think it goes beyond that. They weren’t the only people calling and texting, right? That Axios story that you mentioned, that was leaked, right? That was presumably leaked from other Republican politicians or Republican Party members in Ohio.

Sargent: Really essential point, that the leaking itself shows that people are deeply, deeply angry with Donald Trump and JD Vance for doing this. Again, Vance is an Ohio guy, of course.

I want to underscore a little more how badly Trump essentially fucked everybody with this. Because if Democrats win Maine and North Carolina, which now looks highly likely—Maine is, you know, a little bit touch and go, but I think Democrats are going to win it—if they win those two, and then if they get Ohio, thanks to this in part, they only have to win one out of Iowa, Alaska, and Texas to get to the majority.

Shephard: Yeah. And again, it’s a majority that—or Sherrod Brown winning again—just did not seem probable a year ago. It’s a solidly red state now. Trump won it by more than 10 points. He won it by eight points in 2016. He won it by even more, 11 or 12 points, in 2024.

And the fact that they’re on the brink of doing this is extraordinary. And part of that, you know, I think points to the larger political environment, but it also points to candidate selection. Vivek Ramaswamy is not just a bad candidate for governor. He’s a bad candidate for the Ohio Republican Party writ large. And that’s what we’re seeing right now.

Alex, this is the story everywhere, these lopsided leads among independents. You see the same thing in Texas, James Talarico racking up something like a solid double-digit lead among independents. You see it in state after state, with Democrats just really outperforming with independents due to Trump’s toxicity with them. It’s an extraordinary story, especially in South Carolina, isn’t it?

And, you know, I think there are some other interesting things there too, where I had kind of been keeping a lot of South Carolina polling at arm’s length, even as it showed a tight race, just because there are a lot of white voters in that state and they tend to vote for Republicans.

You’re seeing, for instance, Donald Trump was in Mississippi earlier this week or last week. Bill Clinton is going to Mississippi this week. This is an environment right now that I think is turning very quickly. And everywhere you’re looking, what you’re seeing is that there is a lot of enthusiasm for Democrats. And you’re seeing this in Texas as well.

And because the candidates are so bad, because the president is so bad, because gas is so expensive, a lot of people just aren’t voting. And we’re starting to see things that I thought I would never see again, like a Democratic senator in Ohio, and things I thought I would never see in my lifetime, like a Democratic senator from South Carolina.

And among independents, his approval is only 30 percent, with 68 percent of independents disapproving of Trump in South Carolina. And by the way, I want to stress this too: 56 percent of independents disapprove strongly of Trump in the state.

Shephard: Voters in the first term were willing to take the grinding anxiety and exhaustion of Trump’s political style because the stock market was booming and the economy was good. And, you know, you could always just say, well, he’s just being kind of crazy, but he doesn’t do anything.

And Republicans, you know, instead of doing what you usually do when you have an unpopular incumbent president, which is you distance yourself from them—Republicans have no choice but to embrace him, right? The president has been all over the country for the last month.

Sargent: We should probably stress that the chances of winning South Carolina are still very, very slim, and the Senate is on a knife’s edge here. I keep saying that. And I’ve been asking everybody who comes on this question: do you think Democrats will get there in the Senate? It’s going to be very tough, but there is a path, but it could go either way at this point. What do you think? Where do you think this is going to fall?

I think that they will get to 52. That is my prediction.

Shephard: Yes. Our most important thing. And I, you know, in a meeting earlier today, I was starting to worry about a 1912 presidential scenario, with Fetterman holding on or running as a third party or something to screw over a Democrat. I don’t think I need to worry about that, but I would like to not have to worry about things like what John Fetterman is doing when he’s not on Fox News, what John Fetterman’s plans are for running for reelection in 2028. I don’t want to think about John Fetterman at all. So I would love for there to be a 52-seat Senate majority.

Shephard: You too.

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