While some quarterbacks have rediscovered their love for the deep ball, there are other NFL signal callers who have gotten more conservative this season.
Every offseason, we invest hours predicting the upcoming season and projecting which teams will be rising or falling.
But the NFL never ceases to surprise.
And one of the biggest causes for surprises is that players change from season-to-season. Fans feel like they know what to expect from their favorite players based on what they saw the previous year.
But behind the scenes, players are developing or regressing physically, healing from injuries, developing chemistry with teammates, getting new coaching and learning new offenses – changes that are particularly important with quarterbacks.
It can be fairly obvious when players play better or worse than expected – you don’t exactly have to be Bill Walsh to see that Justin Herbert is struggling this season.
But what about styles of play?
Tom Brady started as a game manager in 2001, and by 2007, he was launching bombs downfield to Randy Moss.
We at Opta Analyst used our NFL X-Info data and our player ratings to look at which quarterbacks have changed their style of play the most from last season to this season, whether that’s throwing the ball deeper, releasing the ball faster or checking the ball down less.
QBs Who Have Become More Aggressive
There are many factors that influence how aggressively a quarterback plays. A passer who plays for a team with a great defense may choose to be more cautious, needing only to manage the game.
Or a passer with an improved offensive line may decide to get more aggressive now that he is better protected. Playcalling, confidence in the receivers and game script also factor heavily, as well.
But for the most part, quarterbacks who can stretch the field will do so often. In coaching terms, the threat of deep passing makes things easier for the running game and opens up more space for short and intermediate throws.
There is another factor, however, with throwing deep: It’s just really fun.
No kid grows up dreaming of completing the Super Bowl-winning checkdown or bubble screen.
Quarterbacks dream of picking up chunks of yardage all at once as the ultimate assertion of confidence and skill. Below is a list of the quarterbacks who are ripping passes downfield with greater frequency than last season.
Minimum 50 adjusted attempts through Week 7 in 2026 and 100 in 2025.1. Bryce Young (+2.17 air yards per attempt)
Only two years ago, some analysts questioned whether Young belonged in the NFL at all after the former No. 1 overall pick’s career got off to a rocky start with the Carolina Panthers.
After posting a 73.7 passer rating in his rookie season, Young opened his sophomore campaign in 2024 with two awful starts before he was benched for Andy Dalton.
That might have been the end of Young’s tenure in Carolina if Dalton hadn’t been injured in a car accident. Young reclaimed the starting role and continued to provide mixed results until the final three games of the season, when he threw seven touchdown passes and had a 111.6 passer rating.
Young parlayed that strong finish into a confidence-building year in 2025. He started 16 games and finished with an 87.8 passer rating, but he was still averaging just 6.3 yards per attempt.
This season, he has begun pushing the ball downfield and has shown the greatest increase in average air yards per attempt (7.29 to 9.46) among QBs with at least 50 adjusted attempts through Week 7. While Young’s completion rate has dropped a bit as a result, he is averaging 7.5 yards per attempt this season. He is also pacing a career-high touchdown rate (5.3%) and career-low interception rate (1.8%).
In 16 games last season, Young attempted just 36 passes more than 20 yards downfield. So far this season, he already has 26 deep-ball attempts in just six games.
Young is coming off his worst game of the year, with a 51.9 passer rating in a blowout loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but his improvement has the Panthers atop the NFC South at 3-3 entering Week 8.
2. C.J. Stroud (+1.67 air yards per attempt)
Stroud’s development arc with the Houston Texans has unfolded much differently than Young’s.
Stroud excelled as a rookie and looked like he was going to be the next big thing after he threw 23 touchdowns to just five interceptions in his first season. He followed that up with a playoff win and a 109.3 passer rating in two postseason games.
His numbers dipped in 2024 and 2025, but he still helped guide the Texans to one playoff win in each postseason, and he is off to the best start of his career this season.
Stroud has thrown 11 touchdowns to just one interception, and he is throwing the ball downfield more often. He has 15 completions of 25 or more yards this year after having 20 all last season.
He still isn’t going for the home run very often – going 1 for 5 on passes over 40 yards downfield this season – but he has started thriving on intermediate throws, with a 119.7 rating on throws 11 to 20 yards downfield.
Stroud has also gotten much better at throwing over the middle of the field this season, and he is doing it much more often.
In 14 games last season, he threw 46 passes to the middle quintile of the field with a 71.0 passer rating. In seven games this season, he already has 49 attempts over the middle and has a 115.3 rating on those throws.
3. Jared Goff (+1.49 air yards per attempt)
Goff is quietly off to a career-best start with 14 touchdown passes, zero interceptions and a 112.5 rating six starts for the Detroit Lions. The Lions’ offense has elite weapons, and Goff is happy to feed them.
Jameson Williams’ 14.6-yard average depth of target ranks fourth among wide receivers with at least 30 targets, and Amon-Ra St. Brown is the master of getting open on intermediate routes.
Goff is looking for the home run more often this season, with three completions of more than 40 air yards. Last season, he only had one completion over 40 yards downfield.
Despite Goff’s increased willingness to throw deep, he has not compromised ball security at all. He leads all quarterbacks with a 93.9 rating in our Throw Safety metric, hardly ever pushing the ball into dangerous windows.
QBs Who Have Become Less Aggressive
There are many reasons why a quarterback would dial back his aggressiveness, and many of them are factors outside of the passer’s control.
The three players who have reduced their average air yards per attempt the most are among the very best quarterbacks in the league. Veteran quarterbacks are often more confident in stringing together several completions in a row and may be fine with using excellent execution to move the chains repeatedly.
In other cases, however, a player may be missing opportunities for big plays, especially if he is checking down too much.
Minimum 50 adjusted attempts through Week 7 in 2026 and 100 in 2025.1. Caleb Williams (-2.47 air yards per attempt)
Williams’ case is an interesting one, with his depth of throw plummeting this season with the Chicago Bears.
Williams is most known for his ability to improvise, so it is not surprising that he stays within the structure and timing of the play design on 55.9% of passing plays, the third lowest rate among qualified quarterbacks.
But that swashbuckling play style is typically accompanied by a desire for big plays and a “gunslinger” mentality.
Williams, however, has developed into an elite ball protector, even when improvising. He has thrown just one interception this season.
Even more impressive, he has only one pickable pass in his 111 adjusted attempts. That 0.90% pickable pass rate is the lowest in the league and miniscule when compared to the NFL average of 4.12%.
Williams has the third highest checkdown rate (17.1%) in the league, so there probably are some throws left on the table, and he has just five touchdown passes this season. He has thrown just six passes over 20 yards downfield this season while the Bears have seen success on the ground.
But Williams has dealt with a hamstring injury this season, and he still has the Bears in a great position at 5-2. He will face perhaps the biggest challenge of his professional career in Week 8 when Chicago visits the Seattle Seahawks on Monday Night Football.
2. Patrick Mahomes (-1.84 air yards per attempt)
Mahomes used to be known as one of the most audacious quarterbacks in the game, and memories of him airing it out to Tyreek Hill will forever be burned into Kansas City Chiefs fans’ minds.
Mahomes has entered a different stage of his career. Hill is long gone, Travis Kelce has become less of a deep threat as he has aged, and Rashee Rice is more of a yards-after-catch specialist, with an average depth of target of just 7.1 yards.
Unlike in seasons of the recent past, however, Mahomes’ more conservative play style could work out great for the Chiefs this season. He’s been effective on throws of 10 or fewer air yards, less so when stretching the field.
Patrick Mahomes by Air Yards (2026 Season):
10 or Fewer Air Yards: 100 of 143, 890 yards, 7 TDs, 0 INTs, 102.6 passer rating 11+ Air Yards: 24 of 48, 584 yards, 2 TDs, 4 INTs, 73.6 passer ratingThe acquisition of Kennth Walker III has also turned Kansas City’s running game into more of a weapon, so Mahomes can carry less of a burden. It is also worth noting that Mahomes has not been very effective when trying to push the ball downfield this year.
3. Matthew Stafford (-1.61 air yards per attempt)
The reigning league MVP is having a bit of a recession season for the Los Angeles Rams, and his team’s record has followed at 3-4.
Despite Stafford boasting a higher completion rate this season than last, his yards per attempt have dropped from 7.9 to 7.2 this year with his average air yards down even more (9.65 to 8.04). And, unlike Williams, Stafford is putting the ball in jeopardy, nearly doubling his interception rate to 2.5% this season.
Stafford’s checkdown rate and average snap-to-throw time are virtually identical to his numbers from last season, so he really is just targeting shallow receivers more frequently.
Not only is Stafford playing more conservatively, but he has become unreliable when throwing the deep ball so far this season.
Alarmingly, his accuracy rating is just 70.4 this season, putting him below players like Jaxson Dart and Daniel Jones.
Last season, the Rams ranked fourth with a 124.3 passer rating on throws of more than 20 air yards. This season, they rank 28th with a 39.4 rating on deep passes.
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Which NFL Quarterbacks Have Gotten More Aggressive Since Last Season? Opta Analyst.
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