Bo Nix’s struggles as Denver Broncos quarterback have been widely publicized.
Since he’s the face of the offense and the franchise, he’s receiving a lot of criticism. That’s how playing QB works; play well and you’re a hero, play poorly and you’re a bum.
And looking at some numbers tell the tale of his poor play.
3 stats explain Bo Nix’s struggles as Denver Broncos QB
All of Broncos Country knows Nix’s play is hurting the team’s offense.
He’s not helping Denver sustain drives or move the chains. He’s playing scared and bailing on the pocket too often. Not all of it is his fault, but most of it is.
Let’s start with what’s not his fault.
Pressure Rate
Per Pro Football Focus, Nix has been pressured on 39.4% of his dropbacks.
That’s too high a percentage; it means he’s pressured on four of every 10 dropbacks.
That 39.4% number puts him at 13th among qualifying quarterbacks.
Simply, the Broncos offensive line isn’t blocking as well as they were last year. Not by a long shot.
Through six weeks, the O-line is winning a mere 46% of their pass block snaps per ESPN. That ranks near the bottom of the league in 25th overall.
Among the other 12 players with higher pressure rates, Nix has the lowest offensive and passing grades per PFF. Justin Herbert is second-worst. That’s to say when Nix is pressured, he’s the worst quarterback in the NFL today.
This is where the O-line needs to step up and protect him better.
ADOT
ADOT or Average Depth of Target is a stat that’s been talked about a lot for Nix this year.
His ADOT is abysmal; he averages a mere 5.56 yards per pass per Sumer Sports, which is dead-last among 33 qualifying quarterbacks.
This isn’t necessarily something new. Nix has always thrown the ball close to the line of scrimmage, but he’s also mixed in intermediate and deep balls. This year he has thrown over 10 yards only 35 times (27th) and 20-plus yards a mere 11 times (25th).
The Broncos have to attack downfield more often or defenses know they can play closer to the line of scrimmage and force Denver to punt.
Simply, Nix’s checkdowns are hurting the Broncos offense. Sean Payton’s taken over the play-calling and has to continue to work in shot plays to help this offense find its rhythm again.
Of course, when you’re under pressure a lot, getting the ball out of your hands quickly is important. So at least part of this ADOT issue is the line’s poor play.
EPA/Play
In his two-plus years of playing in the NFL, advanced metrics have not been keen on Nix’s play.
His EPA/play is in the bottom-third of the NFL at -0.13, which is 24th per Sumer Sports.
EP is expected points and is usually a range of -3 to +7. For instance, a 4th and 20 from the 1 yard line is close to -3 while a first and goal is +6. You’re expected to score when you’re in the red zone, and not expected to score on 4th and forever from your own goal line.
So, EPA/play is grading what was expected before the play and how a quarterback performed in that play. And Nix isn’t playing well. He’s not earning the points he’s expected to, not executing when he should be.
There are a ton more stats showing how awful Nix is playing quarterback, too. From passer rating (79.4, 26th), to QBR (38.5, 30th) and more.
But the good news is Nix and the Broncos face the Cardinals this Sunday in Arizona. It’s a chance for a get-right game for Nix and the entire offense. The Cards give up 29.7 points per game, which is second-most in the league. And they’re bottom-half in the NFL in passing yards allowed.
Denver (4-2) faces Arizona (2-4) at 2:05 p.m. on Sunday, Oct. 25 in Glendale, AZ.
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