The Dodgers’ bid for a three-peat ended in decisive fashion, as they were swept by the Brewers one year after handing Milwaukee that same fate in the NLCS. As they turn their attention to 2027, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman tells reporters (including Katie Woo of The Athletic) that this offseason will be “business as usual” from a financial perspective — at least pending the possibility for an overhaul to the sport’s economic structure in the next collective bargaining agreement.
No team has come close to the Dodgers’ spending in recent years. There’d been no real concern that they might slow down until reports emerged this summer that investments and loans made by insurance businesses owned by chairman Mark Walter were the subject of federal inquiries. Walter has sold off his interests in a few other sports franchises, most notably the Lakers. Dodgers CEO Stan Kasten said in no uncertain terms in August that Walter had no plans to sell the baseball franchise. Kasten also downplayed the idea that the non-baseball businesses could lead to a reduction in the team’s payroll, saying then that “the Dodgers stand on their own pretty well.”
Friedman’s comments strike the same chord. “We talked to Mark after we lost, and he was obviously really disappointed,” he told reporters on Wednesday. “But so much of his focus was on, OK, what can we do? What are our plans? What are our thoughts for the offseason? And our brains weren’t quite there yet, but so much of his focus was how do we put ourselves in the best position to win in ’27?”
The biggest question is whether to make a serious run at retaining Tarik Skubal. He’s the clear #1 free agent and could command a contract that more than triples the next-biggest deal that anyone signs this winter. Skubal and agent Scott Boras figure to take aim at topping the records for both overall guarantee by a pitcher ($325MM) and average annual value ($43.333MM) — likely by significant margins. There’s a decent chance Skubal becomes the game’s first $400MM+ pitcher.
The Dodgers don’t need Skubal necessarily. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Roki Sasaki, and some combination of Justin Wrobleski, Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone would already make for one of the game’s best rotations. That didn’t stop L.A. from winning the bidding on the trade front this summer, of course. Their combination of resources and roster strength means they can afford to pursue impact talent with an eye on October. That’s also why they’re happy to embrace regular season injury/workload questions with Snell and Glasnow, as their main focus is on building the most talented possible pitching staff for the postseason.
Skubal is probably the only true elite talent in an otherwise subpar class. There’s a high volume of mid-level starting pitchers, but the Dodgers’ relative lack of concern with the regular season means they’ve devalued lower upside innings eaters. They’re also locked in for the most part on the position player side, so they don’t need to be especially aggressive in a hitting class loaded with question marks.
Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Kyle Tucker, Will Smith, Max Muncy and Andy Pages essentially have seven lineup spots secured. The Dodgers probably should look to move on from Teoscar Hernández in the final season of his three-year deal, though they’d plug top prospect Josue De Paula into left field if that happens. A combination of Tommy Edman, Alex Freeland and Hyeseong Kim seems fine at second base, though that’s the one position that’d be a little easier to upgrade if they wanted to take a swing on another big bat (e.g. Brandon Lowe).
If the Dodgers let Skubal walk, it could be a relatively quiet offseason mostly because they don’t have a ton of pressing needs. The main exception would be in the bullpen with impending free agencies of Alex Vesia and Evan Phillips — both of whom it stands to reason they’d like to bring back on two- or three-year deals.
As shown on MLBTR’s Payroll Tracker (via contributor Ethan Hullihen), the Dodgers ended this season with a competitive balance tax estimate around $430.7MM. That’s estimated around $388MM for next year, including the projected salaries for a relatively light arbitration class. No team would need to reduce spending more than L.A. if MLB successfully gets the Players Association to budge on a salary cap. That would surely involve a multi-year grace period for the biggest spenders to get payrolls down to acceptable levels.
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