The magnitude 7.7 quake hit on March 28, 2025, near the city of Mandalay and shook buildings as far away as Bangkok, 830 miles (1,330 kilometers) away. The death toll was at least 3,700 people. New research that used detailed satellite data and a one-of-a-kind video of the ground rupturing reveals that the fault had a twisty, almost helical shape, which affected the shaking.
"The idea is, we cannot predict when and where an earthquake might happen" along a particular fault, she said, "but we may be able to predict certain aspects of it."
Damage from the magnitude 7.7 earthquake that hit on March 28, 2025, near the city of Mandalay. (Image credit: Photo(s) taken by Dr. Tha Zin Htet Tin of East Yangon University)
The researchers' models revealed that the fault is not a vertical plane under the ground. Instead, the surface dips west on the northern end of the fault, becomes vertical in the middle, and then dips eastward at the southern end, they found.
However, everyone near a dangerous fault should still prepare for major shaking, Gabriel warned, because small local variations, like how much sediment has accumulated over the bedrock in an area, can make a difference in how bad the ground movement gets. Los Angeles, for example, sits on a sediment-filled basin that would jiggle like jelly in a large quake.
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Researchers are currently working to update their model of what the Big One would look like on the San Andreas. The results of the update will be shared to help the public prepare, inform building codes and educate emergency managers.
"This really shows how we can use this long-term fault-monitoring data," Gabriel said.
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