The Tigers handed Framber Valdez the third-largest deal among free-agent starters last winter. The lefty received a three-year, $115MM commitment. He was brought in to form an elite southpaw tandem with two-time reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal.
Valdez’s debut campaign in Detroit didn’t go so well. His 4.03 ERA was his worst mark since becoming a full-time starter in 2020. Valdez had a career-low 17.8% strikeout rate, while his walk rate ticked up to its highest point since 2021. He was far from the only reason the Tigers fell short of the postseason, but he failed to provide much-needed stability to a rotation that needed another reliable workhorse.
The first red flag for Valdez is a 56.3% groundball rate. It’s more of a beige flag. That’s a tremendous number for just about anyone (league average was 44.1% in 2026), but it’s not what we’ve come to expect from the lefty. Valdez has coaxed grounders at a 61.5% clip for his career. The 56.3% mark in 2026 was his second-lowest as a big leaguer, behind only 2023. Valdez saw a bump in strikeouts that season, which adjusted his profile a bit.
Getting groundballs at a league-leading clip helps Valdez balance out his hard contact issues. He routinely ranks in the bottom 10th percentile in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity. Well-struck grounders aren’t going to do damage at nearly the level of line drives and fly balls. Valdez’s WHIP is typically higher than other aces, but his ERA tends to land in the low-to-mid 3.00s range with this approach.
Fewer groundballs obviously meant more balls in the air. Notably, it also meant more contact in the air to the pull side. Valdez had a career-high 16.4% pulled air rate. That’s right around league average, but it’s well above Valdez’s career mark of 10.7%. He’d been below 10% in five of the past six years heading into this season. The new batted ball profile resulted in a .258 batting average and a .370 slugging percentage. Again, not a glaring red flag, just a step back for him. Valdez hasn’t had numbers that high since his reliever days.
Valdez has never been a big strikeout guy, though he’s usually close to a punchout per inning. His 17.8% mark in 2026 was the first time he’d been below 21% as a full-time starter. It came with a brutal 8.7% swinging-strike rate that ranked 42nd among 46 qualified starters.
The curveball was the main culprit. Valdez’s primary breaking ball had a 31.8% whiff rate, well below its normal performance. The pitch had a whiff rate of 39.8% or higher in every season since his rookie year in 2018. Valdez threw the curveball about 1 mph slower in 2026 compared to the previous season. It had a bit more vertical drop and less horizontal break. It wasn’t a huge difference, but it’s enough to raise an eyebrow.
On a less tangible level, Valdez never had one of his patented heaters. He usually puts together a dominant stretch at some point each season. One of those runs where the curveball is on point and he’s on no-hitter watch each time out. In 2025, it was June through July (1.93 ERA, 28.9% strikeout rate). He gave up just 11 earned runs over his final nine starts of 2024. This season just didn’t have the vintage Valdez hot streak, outside of a 1.93 ERA in four September starts.
None of these 2026 issues are irreparable problems. It was more that a bunch of different things were a little off this year. It could also be chalked up to the pressures of a player heading to a new team on a big deal for the first time. With Skubal and Casey Mize traded away, plus Jack Flaherty and Justin Verlander moving on, Detroit will need the Astros version of Valdez to show up in 2027.
Photos courtesy of Junfu Han of USA TODAY and Charles LeClaire, via Imagn Images
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