The Black Sea is fast becoming a central front in Vladimir Putin‘s escalating campaigns to make Ukraine unlivable and deter European allies from supporting it.
The Bulgarian prime minister summoned the Russian ambassador on Tuesday after two merchant ships were struck by drones off the country’s Black Sea coast, sinking one of them.
Rumen Radev stopped short of explicitly blaming Russia, saying that they “lack solid, clear evidence to level accusations against any specific party”. However, he said “logic suggests the outcome works to the advantage of the Russian Federation”.
The attack on the Ukrainian-owned Chelsea 3, which was sailing under a Maltese flag, resulted in five people receiving medical treatment, though no one was seriously hurt, while the HS Dignity, a cargo-ship flying under the flag of Guinea Bissau, sank, with six sailors rescued and 10 missing.
The incidents occurred just a week after two other ships were attacked by drones. A Turkish-owned cargo ship was sunk, with all 10 crew still missing, presumed dead, while a second vessel, which was carrying grain, was also hit. All of the attacks occurred in Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone.
A similar attack, which killed two sailors near Romania earlier this month, was condemned by Ukraine, with President Volodymyr Zelensky accusing Russia of targeting “a civilian vessel in neutral waters carrying corn and owned by Turkey”.
The rise in attacks has raised fears of an increase in tensions in the critical waters, which are used by Ukraine to export grain and other provisions.
Ursula Von Der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, condemned the attacks as “unacceptable” and said that “the Black Sea has become another front of escalation of the Russian war in Ukraine”.
Russia’s ambassador to Bulgaria , Eleonora Mitrofanova, said she had no information from the Russian Defence Ministry about attacks but did not rule out they could be a provocation by a third party, Bulgaria’s government said.
An injured crew member from a ship struck by drones in Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone last week (Photo: AFP via Getty Images)Why the sea is ‘crucial for Russia’s power projection’
The Black Sea contains several important trade routes, through which key commodities like oil and grain pass, with an estimated 20 per cent of the world’s wheat exports and 15 per cent of global maize exports passing through the Black Sea before the war.
Arun Dawson, a researcher at the Freeman Air and Space Institute, King’s College London, told The i Paper that “lots of countries in the Black Sea have the sea-drone capabilities required to pull off such an attack”. He added that the example of Nord Stream demonstrated the risks of jumping to conclusions too soon.
The Nord Stream gas pipelines connecting Russia to Germany were sabotaged in a series of explosions in 2022. Observers initially blamed Moscow for the attack, but this year German state prosecutors accused Ukrainian “state authorities” of ordering the attack. A Ukrainian soldier is on trial in Germany accused of attacking the pipelines.
But Dawson said that “once you account for capability, it only really comes down to intent, and Russia is really the only player that would have the intent to damage these vessels”.
Dr Maryna Vorotnyuk, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said that the region was “crucial for Russia’s power projection, as it has traditionally served as a platform for projecting military power into the eastern Mediterranean”.
It is also essential for commercial navigation and energy exports, including Russian crude oil and petroleum products, she said, as well as grain and agricultural exports such as fertilisers.
“Maintaining strategic control over Ukraine and limiting Nato’s military presence and influence in the Black Sea have long been primary Russian objectives.”
Ukraine’s grain corridor in the Black Sea is key to its economy. A tanker in Odesa, southern Ukraine, in 2024 (Photo: Ukrinform/NurPhoto via Getty Images)‘Russia is testing how we respond’
Vorotnyuk suggested that the drone attacks in the Black Sea could be tied to the war in Ukraine entering a decisive phase, with the battlefield stalled in parts of the front line. “Moreover, over the past couple of years Ukraine has clearly gained the upper hand in the maritime domain in the Black Sea,” she said.
She believes Russia is responsible, and added that a sustained campaign against maritime shipping could “strangle” Ukraine’s economy. “Unfortunately, the land corridors, the so-called Solidarity Lanes along Ukraine’s western borders with its EU neighbours, cannot substitute for the maritime corridor, which is crucial for the majority of Ukraine’s exports.”
According to Dawson, the attacks could have two objectives, from a Russian perspective. The first is to “inflict economic pain on Ukraine and add pressure to come to some sort of settlement”.
But the attacks on ships connected to countries other than Ukraine could also be designed to give Ukraine’s allies “pause for thought” in their support for the country, he said.
In 2025, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas warned that “the Black Sea is the prime target for hybrid actions” and in August Politico reported that there had been discussion over whether Russia’s actions there were moving beyond hybrid actions into overt aggression.
“The fact is that Russia’s activities have long moved beyond sub-threshold or grey-zone operations,” said Vorotnyuk. “What we are seeing is Russia testing and probing how the West responds”.
Dawson said that the cumulative effect of Russia’s campaign of hybrid actions might be to “normalise what a decade ago might have been considered quite provocative actions by the Russian state”.
Russia has been quite hostile and aggressive, but this behaviour is calculated to not trigger Article 5 of Nato,” he added. “The Black Sea is a vast, vast domain and it can be very easy to hide underwater drones in that environment, which makes it hard to defend.”
Nato’s chief, Mark Rutte, said the alliance would adjust its defences “as needed”. He added: “We have already strengthened our posture along the eastern flank and will continue to monitor the security environment, adjusting our deterrence and defence posture as needed.”
If Russia is to blame for these latest drone attacks, the Black Sea could soon become one of the most important fronts in the war.
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