It may only be October, but Christmas is already on the horizon. For anyone dreaming of waking up to a blanket of snow on December 25, a new look at historical weather data offers a glimpse at where a white Christmas is most likely.
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center has a National White Christmas Map that shows the historical probability of having snow on the ground on Christmas Day across the United States.
The map uses climate data from 1981 through 2010 to reveal how the odds vary depending on where you live, but before you start planning a snowy holiday, there is one important detail to know. The map does not predict whether it will snow on Christmas 2026. Instead, it shows where snow has historically been most likely to stick around through Christmas morning.
Where Is a White Christmas Most Likely?
According to the map, the northern United States generally has the best chance of a white Christmas, with the Upper Midwest and Upper Northeast among the regions where snow on the ground is more common.
Parts of the Northwest and mountainous regions of the West also have favorable odds, thanks in part to their colder winter conditions and higher elevations.
The outlook is considerably different farther south. Southern states generally have a lower historical probability of snow covering the ground on Christmas morning, while Florida has among the lowest chances.
What Counts as a White Christmas?
The National Weather Service has a specific definition for a white Christmas. For its map, a location must have at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning to qualify.
That means the map isn’t measuring the likelihood of snowflakes falling on Dec. 25. A brief snowfall during Christmas Eve or Christmas Day would not necessarily count if less than an inch remained on the ground when Christmas morning arrived.
The historical data comes from climate records maintained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, offering a long-term look at the conditions different parts of the country typically experience during the holiday. While the map can help identify areas where a white Christmas is more common, it cannot account for the weather conditions that will develop this particular December.
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