The American League’s top two seeds will face off in the Championship Series. The Rays play host to the Guardians in the seven-game set, which begins tomorrow at 7pm CT. Tampa has tabbed their ace Drew Rasmussen for Game 1. The Guards, who just wrapped up a five-game Division Series with the White Sox, haven’t announced their starter yet.
Pitching is the strength of both teams, but the Rays’ staff comes into the ALCS well-rested, having quickly dispatched the Yankees in a three-game sweep. Meanwhile, the Guardians staged their ALDS comeback with a bit of pitching chaos. Parker Messick and Gavin Williams each made two starts, the former going in Games 1 and 4. Williams, of course, made an emergency relief appearance to close out Game 4, then started Game 5 yesterday and delivered 5 2/3 dominant innings with 12 strikeouts. The club went with a bullpen game in Game 3.
Messick only threw 65 pitches in his rocky Game 4 start. He could theoretically go on short rest for ALCS Game 1, but the likelier outcome is that he goes on full rest for Game 2. Williams will be on normal rest for Game 3. That leaves the Guardians to figure out their starters for Games 1 and 4 at a minimum. Foster Griffin and Joey Cantillo were used for eight and five outs in Game 3, respectively, while Tanner Bibee was used in Game 4 and only got one out. All three are options for a potential Game 1 start, with Griffin and Cantillo being fully rested.
However Cleveland’s rotation shakes out, the Rays will counter with their top three of Rasmussen, Freddy Peralta, and Nick Martinez. Rasmussen broke out as Tampa’s ace this year, delivering a 2.67 ERA in 30 starts with a 21.2% K-BB rate and a 43.9% ground ball rate, both of which were above average. FanGraphs credited him with 5.0 wins above replacement. That put him just behind Cam Schlittler and Dylan Cease as one of the best starters in the Junior Circuit. Messick was right behind Rasmussen with 4.9 fWAR.
Peralta and Martinez aren’t on the same level as Rasmussen but are still solid options for Games 2 and 3. Peralta struggled for two-thirds of the season before turning it around upon his trade to Tampa. He posted a 3.25 ERA in 55 1/3 innings with the Rays and added 4 2/3 frames of one-run ball in ALDS Game 2. Martinez was a bit off in Game 3, though he quietly had a very good regular season, tossing 180 innings with a 3.10 ERA and a stingy 3.6% walk rate that was the best among qualified starters in the AL. Rasmussen was second at 4.8%.
The Guardians may hold a slight edge in the bullpen, having gotten strong to dominant performances from Cade Smith, Colin Holderman, and Hunter Gaddis. The Rays aren’t slouches, though, countering with Bryan Baker and Kevin Kelly in the late innings. Ultimately, the difference maker in this series will be how the two clubs do at the plate. Tampa was stronger during the regular season. They tied the White Sox for fifth-best in the Majors with a team-wide 104 wRC+, while the Guards were below-average at a 97 wRC+. Junior Caminero hit 42 home runs and will finish in the Top 5 of AL MVP voting. Yandy Díaz and Jonathan Aranda were 23-25% better than average by wRC+. Chandler Simpson batted over .300 and led the Majors with 46 stolen bases.
Chase DeLauter (131 wRC+), Steven Kwan (114 wRC+), and Travis Bazzana (110 wRC+) were Cleveland’s top qualified hitters in the regular season. José Ramírez had a down year (mostly a tough second half) before coming to life in the ALDS. Overall, the Guardians hit better in their five-game set than the Rays did in their sweep of the Yankees. In addition to strong showings from Ramírez, Patrick Bailey, and Jo Adell, the Guardians got on base more frequently thanks to a 14.3% walk rate. In contrast, the Rays walked just 4.9% of the time en route to a .255 OBP.
Photos courtesy of David Dermer and Kim Klement Neitzel, Imagn Images
Who Will Win The ALCS?
Rays Guardians Vote Vote to see results Rays 83% (195) Guardians 17% (41)Total votes: 236
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