“Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine,” Trump posted on Truth Social on Sunday, without providing additional details about the deal. “Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!”
He wrote on X that Ukraine “supports the ceasefire, and it’s important for Russia to support it as well.”
Read More: The G7 Is Releasing Emergency Fuel Reserves. How Much Will It Help Americans?
In doing so, he has falsely implied that this is a primary factor in the ongoing global shortage. The main contributor to the current crisis is the U.S. war with Iran, which has resulted in blockades on the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil passed prior to the start of the war in February.
In response, several European leaders expressed their continued support for Zelensky on Sunday.
The comments came on the heels of an announcement that the U.S. made a deal to acquire Russian diesel.
“Diesel Prices for Americans and, indeed, the World, will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST,” he wrote in a post on Truth Social.
“Lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, is my Greatest Priority,” he said while announcing the new diesel deal.
But some experts are skeptical that an influx of Russian fuel will bring relief to struggling Americans—especially with the immediacy Trump is projecting.
Jeff Colgan, a professor of political science at Brown University, says that there is also an unfounded presumption that Putin plans to go along with the timeline that Trump announced.
A Pew Research Center survey released Oct. 8 found that 74% of U.S. adults were very concerned about gasoline and energy prices, up from 43% in January. A separate report showed that 84% of registered voters considered the economy very important to their vote.
Trump seems to be aware that these voter sentiments could be detrimental at a time when the Republican Party is battling to hold its majority in the House and Senate.
Trump also signed an executive order on Oct. 5 to temporarily allow anyone to pump so-called red-dyed diesel, which is tax-free. It is normally reserved for off-road uses such as farm and construction equipment.
But Olena Lennon, a practitioner in residence of National Security at the University of New Haven, believes it will not have the impact Trump claims. She calls the amounts of Russian diesel Trump is introducing to the market “minuscule.”
Noel agrees that Trump’s efforts are just temporary fixes that do not offset the harm done by the unresolved conflict in the Middle East. He says that it is unlikely that any of these recent deals will significantly impact Americans.
He explains that even if there were some economic relief, it would be offset by the ongoing conflicts in Iran and Ukraine, which will continue to drive prices upward at the pumps and impact the economy in the U.S.
What does Trump's Russian diesel deal mean for Ukraine?
The Russian diesel deal came with an easing of U.S. sanctions. On Oct. 9, the Treasury Department issued a temporary license allowing transactions involving the sale, delivery, and importation of Russian-origin diesel, including imports into the United States, through April 7, 2027.
The announcement received immediate blowback from Zelensky, European leaders, and U.S. politicians who supported the longstanding bipartisan sanctions policies.
“Look, this has deadly consequences. Giving Vladimir Putin any sense that we're going to put our foot on the brakes—versus putting our foot on the accelerator to ending this war and ensuring peace in Europe—we've got to go back,” the Republican senator said. “And I do believe there's a legitimate case for saying the president's not following the law.”
Zelensky called the decision “weak” on Friday, saying it would generate “millions, billions” in extra revenue for Putin, enabling him to wage war “even more aggressively.”
Lennon wonders if Russia even “has huge amounts of diesel available to export in the first place,” given Ukraine’s efforts to strike its refineries and disable the revenue stream.
Lennon argues that easing restrictions on Russian diesel sales could undercut that pressure—and weaken Ukraine’s leverage in negotiations.
Lennon argues that the deal harms Washington's relationship with its European allies more than it helps the nation’s economic position.
“Equally damaging is the erosion of American credibility—not only among European allies, but worldwide,” she says.
As a result, she believes that global leaders will “assess the reliability of American commitments and adjust their own strategic calculations accordingly.”
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