There have been a series of claims regarding the impact of a Super El-Nino, the weather phenomenon building in the Pacific Ocean.
It has been predicted that the El Nino weather event this year, where warm water spreads across central and eastern parts of the Pacific, is likely to be the strongest since the 19th century, thus it has been dubbed a “Super El Nino”.
El Nino does not usually impact the UK greatly, instead causing hot, dry weather for South America, south-east Asia and Australia. Climate scientists now predict 451,000 people across the world will die due to additional heat.
But due to the size of this year’s event, there are fears it could cause more extreme changers to our own weather forecasts or impact food supplies from other countries such as a “551-mile wall of snow”
Here are some of the claims being made about the ‘Super El Nino’.
El Niño will bring a ‘polar vortex of snow and storms’
Much of the recent coverage of El Nino has centred around the impact that it will have on the polar vortex – strong westerly winds encircling the North Pole every winter.
A research paper published by the US government’s NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory said that El Niño “tends to promote the breakdown of the polar vortex, especially in late winter”, increasing the likelihood of snow storms.
“Later in winter, following the peak of El Niño, the stratospheric polar vortex can become weaker,” the Met Office said.
“This may raise the chance of Sudden Stratospheric Warming events, which can increase the potential for cold weather.”
However, the Met Office clarified that these predictions are “shifts in probability rather than guarantees.”
Met Office spokesperson Nicola Maxey, told The i Paper: “While El Niño is one of several factors that can influence the UK’s weather, its impact here is less direct than in some other parts of the world.
“A strong El Niño can increase the likelihood of wetter and more unsettled conditions during late autumn and early winter, but it does not determine exactly what weather the UK will experience, nor does it automatically lead to an increase in extreme weather events.”
El Niño could bring wetter and milder weather to the UK through the autumn and winter, previously said Professor Ilan Kelman of UCL’s department of risk and disaster reduction.
“There’s nothing definite, but in general we would expect a milder, wetter, and stormier autumn, a colder winter, and then a possibility of a hotter summer next year.”
Overall, the impact on Europe is less certain due to distance.
Brits should stockpile to prepare for a ‘551 wall of snow’
In the wake of growing fears around the breakdown of the polar vortex, British Gas recently issued advice on how to prepare for sudden “wall of snow”, including storing at least three days’ worth of food and essentials.
However, the Met Office suggested this degree of preparation would be unnecessary without a specific forecast for heavy snow, although the Government has issued stockpiling advice due to the possible impact of the weather event and increasing hybrid war attacks.
This, however, does not relate to impending snow storm or heavy snow shower but rather, longer term preparation.
The Met Office said that although conditions are predicted to turn cooler, this is different from a confirmed outbreak of disruptive or extensive snow.
“There is also nothing in the forecast that indicates changes in the polar vortex,” they said.
“References to possible changes to the polar vortex are in relation to possible impacts of an El Niño which if they were to happen would be at the end of the winter.”
Maxey added that the current models predict the UK is much more likely to see wind and rain than it is snow.
She said: “Our current longer-range outlook indicates an increased likelihood of wetter and windier conditions, particularly later in the autumn and early winter.
“This forecast pattern is broadly consistent with conditions often associated with El Niño at this time of year.”
Temperatures will plummet this week
While temperatures are likely to fall from the mild conditions we have been experiencing across southern areas, the possibility of temperatures “plummeting” remains unlikely.
There have also been reports of sub-zero temperatures in some area, but there have often been hyperlocal and not across a large range.
The Met Office said: “Daytime values are expected to be close to or a little below average”.
“Friday’s temperatures should be mostly near average and could sit slightly above normal in the south and east. Saturday is likely to be rather cool in places, with blustery winds, sunny spells and scattered showers. This is a recognisably autumnal pattern rather than an exceptional cold spell.”
As stated, the UK is usually more likely to suffer wetter and windier conditions from El Nino rather than colder conditions.
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