It’s time for Week 6 of the college football season.
Before we get to the picks for this week, let’s take stock of a trend that’s been developing through the first few weeks of the campaign.
Upsets are down across the board. Through Week 5, underdogs of +105 or more have won outright just 17.6% of the time. From 2021-2025, teams fitting that criteria won 25% of the time in Weeks 1-5.
Underdogs with a moneyline between +200 and +400 are winning only 14% of games this season. Historically, teams with those moneylines convert at a 27% rate through week 5.
However, I suspect this is happening mostly due to the market mis-pricing games involving G6 teams. The entire Group of 6 only has 3 outright victories over P4 teams this season (UMass over Rutgers, Tulsa over Oklahoma State and UNLV over Cal) compared to 73 losses.
Underdog win rates in G6 vs. G6 games appear to be mis-priced as well. This could be a small sample size artifact or it could be a consequence of how hard it is to model team strength in the current environment, especially at the G6 level where less is known about impact players than at the P4 level.
Underdogs are still winning at roughly the implied rate in P4 vs. P4 matchups:
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