A joint statement from the G7 nations—Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the U.S.—confirmed that the International Energy Agency (IEA) will coordinate the release over the next four months.
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In talks leading up to the announcement on Friday, Trump had been pushing European partners for the release, citing high fuel prices for Americans. Last month, the Trump Administration threatened to temporarily suspend its exports of diesel—earning immediate backlash from countries that rely on it, including Canada, Mexico, and much of Europe.
The agreement could offer some relief for Americans even if the released diesel stays in Europe, because Europe buys some of its diesel from the U.S. Releasing European reserves could ease competition for U.S. diesel and potentially reduce prices for American buyers.
But how much relief consumers will actually see—and how quickly—will depend on what type of fuel is released, how much reaches the market and when, and whether supply disruptions persist.
While crude oil must be refined into products like gasoline before consumers can use it, diesel is already a finished fuel. That means a diesel release could address the immediate shortage more directly.
The supply of crude oil has been heavily disrupted this year after the U.S. and Israel launched joint strikes that ignited a war with Iran in February. In response, Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz in March. More recent negotiations to end the war have largely failed to address differing opinions on ownership and control over the Strait. This has critically restricted the passage of oil-carrying vessels through the waterway, with daily shipping traffic in the single digits last month, down from pre-war averages of roughly 138 to 140 daily transits.
While the U.S. in particular does not heavily rely on Russian diesel, America is vulnerable to the volatility caused by Russia removing it from the global market. Trump has claimed outright that Ukraine’s targeting of Russian oil infrastructure is to blame for diesel shortages.
What could Americans feel, and when?
“It makes a big difference if the release is in the next two weeks or if it's four months from now,” Bordoff says.
At the same time, Jeff Colgan, a professor of political science at Brown University, cautions that American consumers may see limited benefits.
With a timely release of diesel, Bordoff predicts that Americans could see a drop by as much as 25 cents per gallon after a few weeks—but, he adds, the markets seem pretty unsure that that will actually happen.
“I think they’re saying: Show me the barrels, so I have confidence this is real, and it's going to happen quickly,” he says.
“That's the main mechanism, because they want to influence market sentiment,” Bieri says. “Then, futures markets begin to price more optimistically, and then eventually the hope is that prices will come down.”
Bordoff adds that they are also, in part, a response to Trump dropping his threat of a diesel export ban—a threat that was lifted as a condition of the G7 agreement.
“In fact, consumers might not necessarily notice it, ever. That's how insignificant the quantity itself is,” he says of the 100 million barrels. “But it's the importance of the cooperative signal that hopefully will make things better this fall.”
“[They] have been bleeding on increased fuel costs,” he says. “This is going to be, if anything, a welcome reprieve for their profit margins, and they're not going to pass that on immediately to consumers.”
What happens if the supply gap is still there when releases taper off?
In March, the IEA said that the majority of the barrel release would be crude oil; however, reports show that Europe has primarily contributed refined oil, like diesel—which could suggest more of the same in this latest round.
“We're going to continue to have oil, gasoline, and diesel price shocks until that conflict comes to some sort of resolution, and energy flows can get going again,” he says. “Inventories, and stocks and other schemes like waiving state fuel taxes or something can help on the margin for temporary disruptions, but at some point this isn't temporary anymore.”
Negotiations between Iranian leadership and the Trump Administration have stalled multiple times in the last six months. Trump said on Sept. 9 that he expected a resolution to come after the midterm elections, which take place in the U.S. on Nov. 3.
Axios reported, however, that senior Trump Administration officials met at Camp David to discuss the war on Friday. The talks come as the U.S. last week added economic pressure in the region with a series of sanctions aiming to curtail funding streams and stymy industrial lifelines for Iran.
Experts argue that the fuel crisis and volatility exposes the need for the U.S. to adapt to a changing energy ecosystem. Notably, Colgan says that would include “the national security advantages of clean technologies like EVs, batteries, and renewable energy.”
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