Brock Purdy is a frontrunner for NFL MVP after Week 3.
It’s a wild statement, but it has to be true at this moment.
He’s playing the best football as a quarterback in the league, with only Josh Allen’s dual-threat ability rivaling him.
Brock Purdy is the NFL MVP right now
The San Francisco 49ers aren’t 3-0 without Brock Purdy as their quarterback.
Let’s put some respect on the man’s name.
Purdy currently leads the NFL in a ton of quarterback categories, like:
Passer rating (133.1) QBR (93.7) Touchdowns (9) Passing success rate (63.9%) Adjusted yards gained per passing attempt (11.1) Sack percentage (0.0%)Plus, he has 93 rushing yards and a touchdown, which makes him seventh in rushing yards by quarterbacks at this point.
Simply, he’s the best passer in the NFL this season so far.
And what makes him the MVP is the fact that he’s doing it with all the injuries to his team.
The San Francisco 49ers have 14 players currently on the IR, including receivers Ricky Pearsall, Christian Kirk and now De’Zhaun Stribling. Backup tight end Jake Tonges is on the Injured Reserve too; he’s been going to work and playing incredibly efficient football without his best receivers.
Of course, George Kittle is an all-world tight end when he’s healthy, and he is again. He has 16 catches for 174 yards and 3 touchdowns as Purdy’s No. 1 receiver right now. And there’s always Christian McCaffrey who’s a brilliant receiver at running back.
Denver will have to be laser focused on Sunday to slow either Kittle or CMC down, even if Purdy doesn’t have a ton of strong playmakers after those two. The others are Deebo Samuel who made a big play last week against the Cardinals, and Mike Evans who’s been performing well, though he is questionable with a rib injury.
The thing is, much like the Broncos have with Bo Nix, Purdy is a great scrambler.
When he can’t find receivers open downfield, he’s always a threat to take off and gain first downs on the ground. He already has eight first downs this year on the ground.
So, how can the Broncos stop him?
Purdy’s been lucky with turnovers
The Denver defense must focus on turning the ball over.
Sure, that’s a focus for every game. Turnover differential is a huge indicator for who wins games.
And we saw it last week; Nix threw one interception, but Talanoa Hufanga picked off two passes and the Broncos won the turnover battle 2-1. They also narrowly defeated a great Rams team 30-26.
If there’s one weakness in Purdy’s game, it’s his turnover-worthy throw percentage per FTN Fantasy and Bryan Knowles.
Currently, Purdy ranks 11th in turnover-worthy throws, at 3.6%. (Nix is third at 7.4%.)
Knowles writes:
Purdy has always been something of a gunslinger; trusting his arm to get him out of trouble – and sometimes into it. So far this season, Purdy ranks 11th-worst with a interception-worthy throw rate of 3.6%, or three throws through 3 games. That’s just about where he’s sat since he became the full-time starter in San Francisco; he was between 3.3% and 3.9% in each of the last three seasons, significantly above the NFL average.
Forcing turnovers has been a focal point of these Denver Broncos because they forced so few last year. They only forced 14 last season, which was 26th in the league. This year they already have four, all of them interceptions.
And as Knowles notes, they picked of 4-of-6 turnover-worthy throws against them.
Yes, the 49ers are 3-0. But they’ve played against the sleep-deprived Rams, then the Miami Dolphins and the Arizona Cardinals.
In other words, they’ve played a soft schedule and have benefitted from that. Opposing defenses haven’t cashed in on their opportunities to pick off Purdy, which is one of the only ways to stop this great Niners offense.
As part of that soft schedule, Purdy’s only been pressured on 20.2% of his dropbacks, third-fewest in the NFL.
You know Vance Joseph is going to send the Broncos blitz after him multiple times on Sunday, but someone also has to stay home or watch him scamper all over the field.
Ultimately, Purdy is playing near-perfect football.
So when he does make a mistake with a turnover-worthy throw, Denver needs to be there to pick it off. If they do, it’ll vastly help their chances of winning.
Denver (2-1) faces the 49ers (3-0) in San Francisco with a 2:25 p.m. MT kickoff on Sunday.
Brock Purdy is NFL MVP after 3 weeks, but 1 area Denver Broncos can capitalize on Sunday Mile High Sports.
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