Who’s going to win the World Series? The Opta projection model has its numbers and our MLB expert has his analysis. Here’s what to know about each team heading into the playoffs.
History was made in the 2026 MLB season.
Some of that history was good – like the Milwaukee Brewers obliterating their franchise record with 103 wins – and some was more along the lines of ignominious – like the Houston Astros setting the record for worst division winner in history, and needing a win in Game 162 just to get to .500 on the season.
So what do the playoffs have in store for us? Hopefully, more of the former and less of the latter.
We head into all the action with our MLB playoff predictions. Included are each team’s regular season TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Competition Roster), which calculates an expected run differential per 27 outs against an average team, and World Series win probability (as of Monday afternoon), per the Opta projection model.
Also, here’s a reminder to savor this postseason in particular because there’s a ton of uncertainty with the labor agreement between the owners and the MLBPA expiring after the postseason.
Even though baseball is as popular as it has been in a long, long time, and even though owners are making more money than ever and franchise valuations are sky-high, there’s a very real chance a lockout will, at the very least, delay the start of the 2027 season.
So, y’know, enjoy baseball while it’s here!
American League
Tampa Bay Rays
Seed: 1 (AL East champions) Record: 98-64 MLB TRACR: +0.59 (6th) Opening Series: First-round bye; AL Division Series vs. Yankees-Red Sox winner World Series Win Probability: 11.5% (3rd)Important Thoughts, Probably: If not now, when? The Rays have operated all season at Peak Rays level, and a largely mediocre AL is there for the taking. For example, they took a 31-year-old reliever (Bryan Baker) with a 3.86 career ERA and turned him into the MLB saves co-leader (41 of those) with a 1.44 ERA. They have the AL hits leader (Yandy Diaz, with 180) and stolen base leader (Chandler Simpson, with 46) and one of the best sluggers in baseball in Junior Caminero, who hit 42 home runs this season. Their pitching has been largely stellar, with Freddy Peralta’s turnaround (a 0.79 ERA in his final six starts) putting him up with rotation stalwarts Drew Rasmussen (2.67 ERA) and Nick Martinez (3.10 ERA). If the Rays make a deep run, will could-be ace Shane McClanahan make it back from his IL stint?
Cleveland Guardians
Seed: 2 (AL Central champions) Record: 85-77 MLB TRACR: +0.21 (12th) Opening Series: First-round bye; ALDS vs. Astros-White Sox winner World Series Win Probability: 8.4% (5th)Important Thoughts, Probably: If not now, when? The Guardians have operated all season at Peak Guards level, and a largely mediocre AL is there for the taking. Maybe more impressive than anything this time, though, is that Cleveland pulled off this minor miracle despite the worst offensive season in Jose Ramirez’s stellar career. The perennial MVP candidate has just a 95 OPS+ this year and hit only 12 homers, but he’s still the most dangerous postseason bat in that Cleveland lineup.
Houston Astros
Seed: 3 (AL West champions) Record: 81-81 MLB TRACR: -0.32 (20th) Opening Series: AL Wild Card Series vs. White Sox World Series Win Probability: 1.9% (12th)Important Thoughts, Probably: Maybe they saved their “good” baseball for October? But here’s the thing: The Astros have the best hitter in baseball in Yordan Alvarez, who narrowly missed the AL Triple Crown, leading a lineup with four other 20-plus home run hitters. And they have arguably the best lefty closer in baseball in Josh Hader, who turned in a sparkling 1.01 ERA. And their path to a potential ALCS berth would include beating the 84-win White Sox in the wild-card round and the 85-win Guardians in the division series. The other side of the bracket has the three best teams in the AL. October is all about beating the opponent you face, and the Astros have been blessed to be able to avoid the AL’s best for a long, long time.
New York Yankees
Seed: 4 (first AL wild card) Record: 93-68 MLB TRACR: +1.04 (4th) Opening Series: AL WC vs. Red Sox World Series Win Probability: 9.1% (4th)Important Thoughts, Probably: That playoff rotation is tough, isn’t it? AL Cy Young Award favorite Cam Schlittler fashioned a 1.95 ERA, while veteran lefties Max Fried (2.80 ERA) and Carlos Rodon (2.67 ERA) are healthy despite both missing chunks of time this season. And, oh yeah, Gerrit Cole is healthy, too, and slated to start Game 3 against the Red Sox. However, while Ben Rice slugged 41 homers this season, he has only 21 career postseason plate appearances. Plus, any deep October run would almost certainly require a healthy and productive Aaron Judge, and he’s neither of those things at the moment.
Boston Red Sox
Seed: 5 (second AL wild card) Record: 87-75 MLB TRACR: +0.51 (7th) Opening Series: AL WC vs. Yankees World Series Win Probability: 5.6% (8th)Important Thoughts, Probably: This has just been such a weird season in Boston, and it seems equally feasible to imagine the Red Sox getting swept in the opening round or rolling through the AL field and into the World Series. That rotation has the potential to be stellar – especially against lineups reliant on left-handed hitters – and Roman Anthony’s return from an extended IL trip has been encouraging (he posted an .797 OPS over those 25 games).
Chicago White Sox
Seed: 6 (third AL wild card) Record: 84-78 MLB TRACR: +0.36 (9th) Opening Series: AL WC vs. Astros World Series Win Probability: 4.7% (9th)Important Thoughts, Probably: After their incredible turnaround season – three consecutive 100-plus loss seasons – the White Sox are playing with house money at this point. Thing is, they’re probably not done. The Astros limped into the playoffs, and they’re very familiar with their potential ALDS opponent in Cleveland. Tristan Peters already became the first former Savanah Bananas player to hit for the cycle in Major League Baseball, so why wouldn’t he also become the first one to win a playoff series or two?
National League
Milwaukee Brewers
Seed: 1 (NL Central champions) Record: 103-59 MLB TRACR: +1.46 (1st) Opening Series: First-round bye; NL Division Series vs. Padres-Cubs winner World Series Win Probability: 21.0% (1st)Important Thoughts, Probably: As October approaches, how many Brewers fans are thinking back to the MLB trade deadline, angry all over again at their team’s failure to land Tarik Skubal in a trade with the Detroit Tigers? He would have given the club one heck of a 1-2 punch with NL Cy Young Award favorite Jacob Misiorowski. The good thing for those fans is this: Their favorite players and coaches are the best in the business at focusing only on things they can control and ignoring outside expectations. Is this the year all their regular-season success – built on sound fundamentals and flawless execution – translates into a deep postseason run and makes October heroes out of a bunch of guys nobody outside of Milwaukee (and NL Central foes) knows much about?
Los Angeles Dodgers
Seed: 2 (NL West champions) Record: 100-62 MLB TRACR: +1.28 (2nd) Opening Series: First-round bye; NLDS vs. Braves-Phillies winner World Series Win Probability: 18.9% (2nd)Important Thoughts, Probably: The Dodgers are betting favorites to win the World Series, but not overwhelming favorites, as they have been the past couple of years. A big question: Will a Los Angeles lineup that’s reliant on a lot of 30-somethings rise to the occasion in October? Each of the guys in this group – Freddie Freeman (37 years old), Mookie Betts (nearing 34), Shohei Ohtani (32), Will Smith (31), Kyle Tucker (29), Teoscar Hernandez (nearing 34) and Tommy Edman (31) – produced an OPS+ below their career average (in some cases, way below) this season, and after finishing first or second in the NL in runs scored for eight consecutive years, the Dodgers finished fourth this season. A fully healthy Ohtani atop the lineup certainly would help. But it’s worth pointing out, if any rotation is capable of carrying a diminished offense, it’s this one, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tarik Skubal, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow healthy and ready to roll. That’s just silly good.
Atlanta Braves
Seed: 3 (NL East champions) Record: 94-68 MLB TRACR: +0.69 (5th) Opening Series: NL Wild Card Series vs. Phillies World Series Win Probability: 5.8% (7th)Important Thoughts, Probably: With the likes Matt Olson and Ronald Acuna Jr., this team can slug, belting 204 home runs overall with six different players reaching at least 19 round-trippers. But that .309 team on-base percentage speaks to something, too: No other NL team that made the playoffs has more solo home runs than Atlanta’s 124; that’s over 60 percent of the team’s homers. Solo homers don’t usually carry teams in October. And with Martin Perez landing on the IL, the rotation is a bit of a question mark. Chris Sale is stellar, Grant Holmes has been solid and Tyler Mahle has been a great addition. The bullpen has been excellent, but it will be tested if there’s a deep run.
San Diego Padres
Seed: 4 (first NL wild card) Record: 91-71 MLB TRACR: +0.40 (8th) Opening Series: NL WC vs. Cubs World Series Win Probability: 3.4% (10th)Important Thoughts, Probably: San Diego isn’t getting the headlines or love with the playoff odds, but don’t count out the Padres. This club was 50-53 after a loss on July 23. After that, though? They went 41-18, which is the best record in baseball in that span. And what better time to be playing well than heading into October? Especially when you have Mason Miller as the lights-out closer in the bullpen. Fernando Tatis Jr. has been on a recent tear: he hit .337 with a 1.066 OPS and eight homers in 23 September games.
Chicago Cubs
Seed: 5 (second NL wild card) Record: 89-73 MLB TRACR: +0.96 (4th) Opening Series: NL WC vs. Padres World Series Win Probability: 6.5% (6th)Important Thoughts, Probably: Pete Crow-Armstrong had an incredible season that will produce an NL MVP award after the season, but incredibly his spotlight has been diverted by teammate Alex Bregman, who looked like he might be done for the year when he took a foul ball in the face late in the season. Instead, he’s back in the lineup and hit not one but two homers in the regular-season finale, giving him 28 on the year. The pitching will need similar smelling salts to get Chicago into October, though; among the 12 playoff teams, only the Astros have a worse team ERA than the Cubs’ 4.12 (the White Sox are at 4.12, too).
Philadelphia Phillies
Seed: 6 (third NL wild card) Record: 88-74 MLB TRACR: +0.18 (14th) Opening Series: NL WC vs. Braves World Series Win Probability: 3.1% (11th)Important Thoughts, Probably: Talk about stumbling into the playoffs … the Phillies closed the regular season with a 10-14 record in September, and maybe more importantly for the upcoming short wild-card series against the Braves, their late four-game slide meant they had to throw Zack Wheeler in the final regular-season game just to clinch a playoff spot that had looked academic not too long ago. Philadelphia has plenty of playoff experience on the roster, slugger Kyle Schwarber in the lineup and Cy Young Award candidate Cristopher Sanchez atop the rotation. But, honestly, there’s just not much of a reason to expect the Phillies to stick around long. An example: Of the 10 players likely to get the most PAs in the playoffs, only two – Schwarber and Bryce Harper – have an OPS+ above 95 in a Phillies uniform this year. Oh, and Luis Arraez is out at least for the opening round against the Braves. Not great.
Ryan Fagan’s MLB Playoff Predictions
American League
Wild Card: White Sox over Astros, Yankees over Red Sox Divisional Round: White Sox over Guardians, Rays over Yankees Championship Series: Rays over White SoxNational League
Wild Card: Braves over Phillies, Padres over Cubs Divisional Round: Dodgers over Braves, Brewers over Padres Championship Series: Brewers over DodgersWorld Series
Brewers over Rays
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MLB Playoff Predictions: What to Know About Each Team’s Chance to Win the World Series Opta Analyst.
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