After falling one win short of their first American League pennant in 2025, the Mariners entered this season with sky-high expectations. They boasted AL-leading 79.6% playoff odds at FanGraphs on Opening Day, but the number has plummeted to 0.5% with eight games remaining. At 72-82, Seattle is riding out a lost season – perhaps Dan Wilson’s last as the team’s manager. Wilson is unlikely to return as the Mariners’ skipper in 2027, sources told Adam Jude of the Seattle Times.
A Mariners catcher from 1994-2005 and a member of the team’s Hall of Fame, Wilson rejoined the organization as a minor league catching coordinator in 2013. Eleven years later, despite no experience on a big league staff, the Mariners hired Wilson in August 2024 to replace the fired Scott Servais. Wilson took over a 64-64 team and led it to a 21-13 finish, but an 85-77 record was not enough for a playoff berth. Last year, Wilson’s first full season on the job, the Mariners went 90-72 and won their first AL West crown since 2001 (he was a starter on that team). They upended the Tigers in a five-game ALDS before bowing out in seven at the hands of the Blue Jays in the ALCS.
While keeping last year’s roster mostly intact, the Mariners added infielder/outfielder Brendan Donovan in an offseason trade with the Cardinals. Injuries have limited Donovan to just 39 games (none since Aug. 21), though, and several other key position players have sharply declined since last season. No one has experienced a worse drop-off than catcher Cal Raleigh, who smashed 60 home runs and posted 9.1 fWAR en route to a second-place finish in AL MVP voting in 2025. Raleigh has reversed his fWAR to 1.9 this year, hit 38 fewer HRs (22) and seen his wRC+ drop from 161 to 94.
Like Raleigh, center fielder Julio Rodriguez and first baseman Josh Naylor have come up well short of expectations. Shortstop Colt Emerson, whom the Mariners awarded an eight-year, $95MM extension before he ever played a major league game, logged a dismal 67 wRC+ in his first 241 plate appearances. The Mariners were going to send Emerson back to Triple-A Tacoma in mid-August, but they instead placed him on the injured list. He underwent season-ending wrist surgery a week and a half later.
Seattle’s offense ranked ninth in the majors in runs last year, but it has dipped to 28th this season. The nosedive in production cost assistant hitting coach Bobby Magallanes his job in late July, though that didn’t spark an offensive awakening.
On the pitching side, the bottom-line results have also taken a turn for the worse. The Mariners have gone from 13th in ERA to 20th, but it’s worth pointing out the now-departed Luis Castillo had a big hand in those struggles. He put up an inflated 5.06 ERA in 99 2/3 innings before the Mariners dealt him to the White Sox in August. Meanwhile, despite strong peripherals, two-time All-Star closer Andrés Muñoz has managed a middling 4.11 ERA in 57 frames. That’s up almost two and a half runs from the sensational 1.73 mark he registered in 62 1/3 innings in 2025.
If the Mariners’ flat 2026 showing leads to Wilson’s ouster in the coming weeks, they may not have trouble attracting a capable replacement. Left fielder Randy Arozarena, the Mariners’ best hitter this year and one of the game’s top impending free agents, could leave over the winter. Nevertheless, there is still a good amount of proven talent and potential on hand.
Donovan, Raleigh, Rodriguez, Naylor and Muñoz are among those slated to return, and all of them have shown the ability to produce at a high level. The same goes for starters Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Emerson Hancock. Outfielder Dominic Canzone has done nothing but hit since last year. Although Colt Emerson had a tough debut season, nobody is writing the 21-year-old off yet. Emerson, second baseman Cole Young and the recently promoted trio of lefty Kade Anderson, outfielder Lazaro Montes and second baseman/outfielder Michael Arroyo all have significant upside. There is also more talent on the M’s farm, which ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel rates as the 11th-best system in the sport.
If president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and GM Justin Hollander retain their jobs, they could use some of the previously listed players as trade chips. Regardless, there will be changes to the roster after a bitterly disappointing season. It also appears there will be a new leader in Seattle’s dugout in 2027.
Photo courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea, Imagn Images
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