ADHD and autism are not widely overdiagnosed in the UK, a landmark Government review is expected to find.
Instead, the report is set to conclude that growing numbers are seeking an official diagnosis for the conditions because support is often difficult to obtain without one.
People with ADHD and autism can access clinical and behavioural support, as well as help with employment, housing and finances, including workplace adjustments and benefits such as Pip (personal independence payments). An official diagnosis can make accessing this support easier.
The review was launched by Wes Streeting in his former role as Health Secretary under Sir Keir Starmer’s Government to examine soaring patient demand for mental health, autism and ADHD (attention deficit hyperactivity disorder) services.
Following conversations with a range of sources, The i Paper can reveal some of the findings that are expected in the report, which is due to be published in the coming weeks. The review has been led by a group of professionals with extensive clinical and academic expertise in mental health and neurodevelopmental conditions.
It conclusions are likely to be the subject of fierce debate. A sharp rise in the statistics for people living with these conditions has led some experts to question whether they are being diagnosed too readily, while others argue the increase reflects improved recognition, rather than overdiagnosis.
The report is expected to say that autism and ADHD are not being overdiagnosed at scale in the UK, with a greater awareness of these conditions meaning higher proportions of people who would meet the diagnostic thresholds coming forward for support.
However, the group of leading experts are set to acknowledge that there are some instances of overdiagnosis, misdiagnosis and underdiagnosis.
They are also likely to rule out a rise in people attempting to game the system to obtain a diagnosis, finding that those seeking one are genuinely experiencing the challenges associated with these conditions.
2.5m have ADHD, according to NHS estimates
NHS statistics estimate that 2.5m people have ADHD, including those who have not been formally diagnosed. Of these, an estimated 740,000 are children and young people aged five to 24.
ADHD waiting lists, referrals and diagnoses have surged in recent years, with the number of children and young people waiting for an assessment rising from around 21,000 in 2019 to 270,000 by the end of 2025, according to NHS England monitoring data.
There has also been a rise in people seeking an autism assessment, with 290,000 people on the waitlist as of June 2026 – which is a 15 per cent increase compared to last year, according to the latest NHS data.
The final report is expected to find that the current system gatekeeps formal clinical pathways for those with an official ADHD or autism diagnosis.
It is expected to recommend that the UK moves away from a “diagnosis-led” system, to an approach that allows people to access help without one, The i Paper understands, including support geared around helping them contribute to society via work, education and family life.
This is likely to prove challenging. NHS England previously said investment in autism assessment capacity has not kept pace with referrals, while a group of ADHD experts recently warned services “cannot adequately support” people who need help.
The report has been chaired by Professor Peter Fonagy, a top clinical psychologist at University College London specialising in child mental health. His career has spanned several decades, including chairing groups developing national health guidelines and serving as the National Clinical Advisor on Children and Young People’s Mental Health for NHS England, where he helped inform the set up of the NHS Talking Therapies Programme.
He has been supported by two vice chairs, Sir Simon Wessely, an experienced professor of psychiatry and former president of the Royal College of Psychiatry, and Professor Gillian Baird, an autism expert and paediatric neurodisability consultant. The recommendations have also been shaped by an advisory board including academics, behavioural scientists and people with lived experiences.
Report’s findings may prove controversial
A conclusion that there is no mass overdiagnosis of the conditions may prove controversial. Some politicians believe overdiagnosis of ADHD, autism and mental health conditions has piled pressure on the welfare bill, and the education system.
Reform’s deputy leader Richard Tice is among those who have previously claimed there is a “crisis of overdiagnosis” of special educational needs among children.
Streeting, now the defence secretary, ended up retracting comments that an “overdiagnosis” of mental health conditions was leading to “too many people being written off”, saying he had “failed to capture the complexity of this problem”.
The number of adults self-reporting that they have ADHD has skyrocketed from one in 25 (4 per cent) in 2014 to one in four (27 per cent) in 2024, according to the NHS’s Adult Psychiatric Morbidity (APMS) survey.
Prof Fonagy’s interim report, published in March, found that while underlying rates of autism and ADHD in the UK population have remained relatively stable, there has been a “substantial increase” in referrals and diagnoses for these conditions. It cited greater awareness and recognition of the conditions.
While the review can set out conclusions and make formal recommendations, it will be up to the Department for Health and Social Care (DHSC) to set out a new national approach.
Currently, those with ADHD and autism can access a range of support, including clinical treatments or behavioural strategies to help them cope, as well as support with housing, finances, employment and social activities.
Having an official diagnosis can make it easier to get workplace adjustments via the Government’s “Access to Work” scheme, such as noise-cancelling headphones, clearer written instructions, coaching or flexible working hours. The scheme does not require a diagnosis to get help, but the charity ADHD UK notes that having one “significantly helps” and claims can be “refused” without one.
Similarly, accessing financial support including via Pip – the main disability benefit – or Disabled Students’ Allowance (DSA), which is for pupils in higher education, does not require a diagnosis. However, medical evidence is needed, meaning having one helps support benefits claims.
More than 100,000 people with ADHD as their main condition now receive Pip, with the latest Government figures show a 40 per cent rise since Labour came to power in 2024.
It comes as a million young people are now classified as “neet”, meaning they are not in education, employment or training and making them more likely to end up claiming unemployment or health benefits.
New Labour-era former minister Alan Milburn has been carrying out a separate independent review of youth unemployment, which is also due this autumn.
Milburn said there has been “whole system failure” across welfare, education and health which has left young people permanently “detached” from the world of work, and is expected to propose overhauling the system to get young people into work and drive down the benefits bill.
A Government spokesperson said: “Last December, we asked clinical psychologist Professor Peter Fonagy to lead an independent review, examining the prevalence of – and support for – ADHD, autism, and mental health conditions.
“Professor Fonagy’s final report will be published shortly, and will inform our new national approach in this area.”
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